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DBS Group Research sees South Korea’s March exports remaining in double-digit growth, supported by strong AI and data centre demand, higher memory prices and supply shortages, leading to a wider trade surplus despite rising import costs. CPI is projected around 2.3% year-on-year, above target, prompting government measures including fuel caps, reserve releases, energy-saving campaigns and a KRW 25 trillion supplementary budget.Robust exports but inflation stays above target”South Korea: March trade and CPI data will be the key focus this week, marking the first set of economic releases following the outbreak of the Iran conflict.””Export growth is expected to remain robust…
The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Friday, breaching the 94-per-dollar mark for the first time and nearing 95, as surging crude oil prices weighed on the currency amid signs that the West Asia conflict may be prolonged.The rupee closed at a record low of 94.81/$, weakening 84 paise from its previous close of 93.97/$1. The rupee had weakened to 94.85/$ on Friday and has declined over 3.5% this month, LSEG data showed. Brent crude oil prices rose by $1.87, or 1.73%, to $109.88 a barrel. While state run banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the central…
The raging war in West Asia continues to have a deleterious effect on the Indian financial markets, with the Rupee closing at a new all-time low, bond yields hardening and equities taking a beating.The rupee closed at a new low of 94.8125 per US Dollar, down about 84 paise against the previous close of 93.9775, amid rising global energy prices, FPI-related outflows from domestic equity markets and a strengthening Dollar.Yields of Government Securities (G-Secs) hardened due to fears of the fiscal implications of the Government’s move to reduce excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 each.Yield of the 10-year…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil rises sharply and trades around $96.00 at the time of writing on Friday, up 3.55% on the day. The Oil market remains driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, as investors increasingly price in a prolonged conflict involving Iran, with potential long-term disruptions to global energy supply.After a brief easing of sentiment following Tehran’s decision to allow several Oil tankers to pass, optimism quickly faded. Military strikes continue across the region, while conflicting statements make the diplomatic outlook harder to assess. US President Donald Trump says negotiations are going “very well”, while Iranian officials state they…
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the US Dollar’s initial weakness after President Trump extended the pause in attacks on Iran’s energy assets has been short-lived, with DXY only slightly lower. He argues that if risk-off intensifies, especially with Brent crude Oil in a higher range and equities falling, the Dollar should strengthen further in the short term despite a poor longer-term backdrop.Dollar seen benefiting from risk-off”The price of Brent crude oil dropped sharply after the announcement yesterday by President Trump that he was extending the pause in attacks on Iran’s energy assets until 8pm EST on 6th April but the…
The Indian rupee plunged to a record low on Friday, sliding past the 94-per-dollar mark, with mounting worries over the energy crisis sparked by the Middle East war putting the currency on track for its worst fiscal-year drop in more than a decade.The rupee declined 0.9% to end at 94.8125 after hitting an all-time low of 94.84 per dollar. The Asian currency has fallen about 4% since the Iran war began at February end, and is down 11% this fiscal year.India’s fiscal year runs from April to March.The last comparable drop was in 2011-12, when a global risk-off due to…
DBS analysts Philip Wee and Chang Wei Liang argue that the Dollar’s (USD) broader downtrend has been interrupted by war-related haven demand and elevated Oil prices. They highlight structural risks from questions over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence and US fiscal sustainability, suggesting US financial hegemony is increasingly being reassessed by global investors.War shock props up Dollar temporarily”A USD mutiny is delayed due to elevated oil prices, but questions over Fed independence and US fiscal sustainability pose structural risks for the USD.””The USD is experiencing a temporary geopolitical floor amid Operation Fury.””Nonetheless, the unilateral nature of the US-Israel strikes has created…
Gold (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day’s fall to the $4,350 area. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower after US President Donald Trump announced that he will delay strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and extended the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until April 6. This turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the commodity. Any meaningful appreciation, however, seems elusive amid expectations of higher interest rates globally, which tends to undermine demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.Investors now seem convinced that…
USD/JPY edged up about 0.1% on Thursday, trading around 159.70 and holding just below the session high near 159.85. The pair has rallied sharply from the early-March lows close to 152.10, gaining roughly 770 pips in under three weeks. Thursday’s candle is compact and sits near the top of the recent range, with price pressing against the 160.00 round number for the first time since the sell-off began in late January.The ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate the macro backdrop. Brent crude has averaged about $97 per barrel in…
The USD/JPY trades higher near the 159.70 level on Thursday, March 26, maintaining an overall bullish bias as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported while the Japanese Yen (JPY) stays under pressure.United States (US) President Donald Trump stated that the recent spike in Oil prices and the decline in the stock market during the tensions with Iran were not as severe as he had anticipated. During a public appearance with Cabinet members, Trump expressed confidence in the war effort and asserted that any economic damage would eventually be reversed.In response, the USD remains strong, supported by Trump’s comments, safe-haven demand,…