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The Indian central bank likely intervened to support the rupee on Wednesday as heavy dollar demand linked to maturing non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) that it had relied on to manage volatility in the currency, blunting relief from a pullback in oil prices. The likely intervention via state-run banks, traders said, helped the South Asian currency hold above its record low of 93.98 per dollar to last quote at 93.96, down 0.1% on the day. “To prevent a more rapid slide in the rupee, the RBI continues to intervene in the FX market through both spot and forwards. As the NDFs mature,…
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT, a print that will matter for markets. Consensus expectations point to inflation pressures keeping their grasp on the economy.UK consumer inflation remains one of the most important inputs for the Bank of England (BoE) and typically carries real weight for the British Pound (GBP). Following the latest hawkish hold by the BoE on March 19, investors now anticipated the ‘Old Lady’ to hike its policy rate at its April 30 gathering.What to expect from the next UK inflation report?Headline…
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT, with inflation expected to hold steady at 3.8% YoY and come in flat on a monthly basis. This release comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised its key rate to 4.10%, highlighting concerns over persistent inflation. Policymakers remain focused on potential second-round effects, while markets increasingly anticipate another rate hike in the coming months.Meanwhile, geopolitical developments are playing a growing role in inflation expectations. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to energy supply routes…
USD/JPY trades around 158.70 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.16% on the day, supported by a US Dollar (USD) that maintains a bullish bias amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is holding near 99.30 after easing from 99.50, reflecting sustained demand for the US currency. Escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven flows while fueling concerns about a broader global economic slowdown.In the United States (US), the latest preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data highlight a loss…
Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Vincent Stamer notes that the Euro area composite PMI fell from 51.9 to 50.5 in March, with services weakening and manufacturing flattered by longer delivery times. He links this to the war in Iran, which is hurting expectations and lifting input prices. Despite the March drop, PMI levels still historically align with moderate Euro area growth.Services weaken as manufacturing distorted higher”The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing and services sectors in the euro area fell from 51.9 to 50.5 points in March. The war in Iran appears to make itself felt: while expectations in…
The Indian rupee paused a three-day run of hitting record lows to nudge higher on Tuesday as traders parsed dissonant signals emanating from Washington and Tehran about a potential resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. The rupee nudged up 0.1% to end the session at 93.8650, from its close at 93.9750 in the previous session. The currency has weakened about 4% in 2026 so far, with a large chunk of losses coming in March as oil prices surged and foreign investors yanked money from local stocks, unnerved by the war in the Middle East.Analysts at Goldman Sachs pared…
The gap between offshore swaps used to wager on India’s policy rates and those that reflect the cost of hedging against a weaker rupee is widening, hinting at worries over the currency’s outlook as the Iran war threatens the net energy importer.The one-year non-deliverable overnight index swap (NDOIS), a key gauge for India’s policy rate expectations, has climbed 50 basis points since the Middle East conflict started.The one-year dollar/rupee non-deliverable currency swap, which factors in the cost of hedging rupee exposure, has jumped more than 90 bps, reflecting pressure from hedging and speculative flows.The spread between the rates has widened…
The Indian Rupee (INR) strives to regain ground against the US Dollar (USD) during afternoon trading hours in India on Tuesday, following an underperformance in the opening trade. The USD/INR drops to near 94.15 from the morning high of 94.30 as the US Dollar gives back its early gains amid improvement in investors’ risk-appetite.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally up to near 99.20 after surrendering almost its entire early gains. S&P 500 futures have recovered its entire early losses and have turned positive around 6,600.00, indicating an…
The rupee fell 20 paise to 93.73 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday as the greenback strengthened and global crude oil prices kept rising even after US President Donald Trump signalled that negotiations were underway with Iran.Trump on Monday said the US was talking with a “respected” Iranian leader and claimed the Islamic Republic was eager for a deal to end the war. He also extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its power plants, saying it has an additional five days.However, Iran’s denial of Trump’s claims created…
The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading near 1.3400 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive pair weakens amid rising risk aversion as US-aligned Gulf states move closer to direct involvement in the Iran conflict, with Saudi Arabia signaling a potential military shift, according to a Wall Street Journal report.Israel launched its latest attack on Iran despite US President Donald Trump signaling a pause in strikes on energy infrastructure after what he described as productive talks with Tehran. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied any engagement with Washington. Iranian Parliament…