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Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke report that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to leave rates unchanged, with markets no longer pricing cuts in the near term after the Iran conflict. They still see scope for two or three 25 bp cuts over 2026, but stresses there is currently no concrete trigger, so today’s decision should have limited impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN).Banxico seen on extended hold”… the Mexican central bank (Banxico) is meeting today. Neither the markets nor analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect an interest rate cut. Although market expectations were around 12 basis points…

UOB economist analysts Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann report that GBP/USD traded softer, closing at 1.3366 after a narrower 1.3359–1.3436 range than expected. They see mild downward pressure intraday, though a move to 1.3320 is unlikely. Over one to three weeks, the outlook remains mixed, with the Pound expected to oscillate between 1.3220 and 1.3480 and medium‑term risk of a drop toward 1.2945–1.3010 on a weekly close below 1.3300.Pound holds in broad range against Dollar”24-HOUR VIEW: GBP appears to be facing mild downward pressure and is likely to trade with a downside bias today. However, any decline is…

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after registering small losses in the previous day, trading around $71.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Non-interest-bearing Silver finds support as easing oil prices, driven by hopes of Middle East de-escalation, reduce inflation concerns and rate hike expectations.The White House said talks remain ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly sending a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan to resolve the conflict. Senior Iranian officials are reviewing the US proposal but have signaled no willingness to engage in talks with Washington. However, Tehran indicated it would reject a US ceasefire offer, instead proposing a five-point…

The Australian Dollar begins Thursday’s session with minuscule gains of 0.04%, after posting losses of 0.68% on Wednesday, courtesy of broad US Dollar strength, despite improved risk appetite. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6950.Aussie pares losses after softer Australian inflation, but broad US Dollar strength keeps upside limitedGeopolitics are driving the financial markets’ narrative, as each new headline keeps investors uneasy amid information about the US-Iran war, shifting the markets’ mood. Growing speculation about the start of US-Iran talks to end the war in the Middle East pushed US equities, the US Dollar and Gold prices…

Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen notes that the Danish parliamentary election has produced a highly fragmented Folketing, with 12 parties entering parliament and no majority for either the red or blue bloc. The Moderates, led by Lars Løkke Rasmussen, now hold the balance of power. Pedersen highlights that complex negotiations could delay forming a new Danish government, while a caretaker administration handles only necessary, non-political decisions.Fragmented parliament complicates coalition building”The Danish parliamentary election ended with a fragmented parliament, where all 12 parties that ran in the election now get seats.””Everything therefore points to the Moderates’ Lars Løkke Rasmussen…

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8650 on Wednesday, slightly lower on the day, as investors weigh rising inflation risks in the Eurozone against mixed macroeconomic signals from the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany.In the Eurozone, comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials dominate the narrative. Chief Economist Philip Lane warns that inflation readings could come in higher in March and April, pointing to a potential jump in the overall price level amid surging energy costs linked to the Middle East war. He also emphasizes the importance of monitoring price expectations and forward-looking indicators such as wages.ECB President Christine Lagarde echoes this cautious…

The rupee slumped 29 paise to close at record low of 94.05 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday as heavy FII outflows and simmering tensions in West Asia kept investors on the edge.Even a drop in global crude oil prices, weaker greenback, and positive sentiments in the domestic equity markets could not provide any respite to the local unit, forex traders said.At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 93.94 against the US dollar and traded in the range of 93.86-94.08, before settling at an all-time low of 94.05 (provisional), down 29 paise from its previous close.The…

The Indian rupee weakened slightly on Wednesday but held off pressure from dollar demand linked to maturing non-deliverable forwards and foreign portfolio outflows, as the central bank intervened to support the currency.The rupee hovered near its record low of 93.98 per dollar through the ‌session before ⁠closing at ⁠93.9775, down 0.1%.Indian stocks rose after Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel, but ​the rupee struggled to benefit as interbank traders and importers bought dollars.A series of NDF maturities, including Wednesday’s, is expected to keep the rupee under pressure over the next week, a trader at a private bank said.Indian stocks…

Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja notes that UK inflation data broadly matched expectations, with Headline CPI at 3% and stronger Services CPI driving a firmer Core CPI outcome. He warns that rising fuel, energy and input costs are likely to push CPI back towards 3.5% year-on-year, undermining prospects for Bank of England rate cuts in 2024 and even raising the risk of renewed hikes.Rising energy costs threaten disinflation path”UK inflation came broadly as expected. Headline CPI printed at 3%, with core CPI coming in a touch stronger than consensus expectations (though in line with our own projection). Why…

The Indian central bank likely intervened to support the rupee on Wednesday as heavy dollar demand linked to maturing non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) that it had relied on to manage volatility in the currency, blunting relief from a pullback in oil prices. The likely intervention via state-run banks, ‌traders said, helped ⁠the South ⁠Asian currency hold above its record low of 93.98 per dollar to last quote at 93.96, down 0.1% on the day. “To prevent a more rapid slide in the rupee, the RBI continues to intervene in the FX market through both spot and forwards. As the NDFs mature,…