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The U.S. dollar was heading towards its biggest weekly loss in 12 weeks on Friday after Thursday’s tepid U.S. jobs report cooled market expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike, providing relief for the Japanese yen. Broad dollar weakness lifted the euro to $1.1440, after it hit a nearly two-week high the day before. It was up 0.5% on the week. The pound firmed to $1.3352 for a 1.1% weekly gain, its best in nearly three months. The stronger dollar also offered respite for the Japanese yen, which strengthened to less than 161 per dollar, but markets remained…
The upcoming week will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors return from the US Independence Day holiday and continue to digest weaker US labor market data. The release of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and Initial Jobless Claims will test the US Dollar’s (USD) resilience.The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades lower near the 100.90 price zone and is set to finish the week with a 0.50% loss. The Greenback will now focus on a relatively light but important United States (US) calendar. Monday will bring the final S&P Global Services PMI and ISM…
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/CNH has seen a slight pickup in downward momentum, but still expects the pair to remain range-bound. The bank now looks for a lower intraday band around 6.7820–6.7940, while its 1–3 week view stays neutral, with USD/CNH likely to trade between 6.7750 and 6.8080.USD/CNH seen holding defined ranges”24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, USD traded within a range of 6.7911/6.8025 and closed little changed at 6.7948 (+0.05%). Yesterday, we indicated that “the price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade between 6.7860 and 6.7990.” USD then traded within a…
The Kiwi Dollar clears the 0.5700 figure on Friday, clings to gains of over 0.22% against the Greenback after hitting a daily low of 0.5689. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD trades at 0.5709.NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe NZD/USD remains technically bearish, even though interest rate probabilities suggest the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could raise rates at least twice. However, in the short term, the leg-up would test an support-trendline-turned resistance at around 0.5750.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising, suggesting buyers are gaining traction, but it remains below the 50-neutral level. Hence, the overall trend is downwards.For…
Commerzbank highlights that strong Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs underpin a constructive growth outlook, with Q2 GDP expected to exceed Q1’s 6% expansion. Against this backdrop, USD/SGD has eased slightly but remains near this year’s highs. The bank expects the pair to consolidate in a defined range rather than trend strongly in the near term.Range-bound outlook for USD/SGD”Looking ahead, the manufacturing outlook remains constructive.””We will get the advance Q2 GDP report in the next week or so.””It is expected to post a strong performance and even exceed Q1’s 6% yoy expansion, supported by a strong manufacturing sector and continued firm…
Societe Generale notes that stronger-than-expected China PMI data suggest slow but steady growth, reducing urgency for the PBoC to ease policy. The bank highlights that USD/CNY has fallen back below its 50-day moving average as Yuan strength reflects robust exports supported by the global AI boom. The report also points to a higher trade-weighted CEFTS RMB Index and firmer 10y CGB yields.Yuan strength backed by exports”China PMI signals slow growth but less urgency for the PBoC to ease: official manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 50.3 in June from 50.0 while non-manufacturing PMI surprisingly rose to 50.2 from 50.1.””The…
The USD/JPY pair posts modest gains on Friday amid thin trading due to the US Independence Day holiday. The US Dollar (USD) stabilizes against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after a sharp decline on Thursday following softer-than-expected United States (US) labor market data. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades at 161.30 after falling to a two-week low of 160.49 earlier in the Asian session.The Greenback weakened on Thursday after the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report missed expectations, signaling that the labor market is cooling. Softer job creation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have less room to keep…
Silver (XAG/USD) prices reclaim the $60.00 mark for the second straight day on Friday, extending their weekly gains to over 5.50% and trading at $62.42 amid broader US Dollar weakness, pushing the white metal to an eight-day high of $62.89. Source
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises by more than 1% on Friday as investors digest a softer-than-expected US jobs report, trimming hawkish bets despite higher inflation. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,174, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,121.Bullion rises as soft jobs data weighs on Dollar outlookOn Thursday, US Nonfarm Payrolls for June missed estimates by a large margin, coming in at 57K instead of 110 K. The Unemployment Rate edged lower, but mostly due to a lower participation rate, which hit 61.5, the lowest since March 2021.Immediately, the swaps market adjusted interest rate expectations of…
ABN AMRO’s Bill Diviney expects the US Dollar to weaken broadly but notes slightly less upside for EUR/USD after revising the bank’s ECB outlook and incorporating French and US election risks. With the ECB seen delivering one more hike and the Fed staying more dovish than markets, ABN AMRO now projects EUR/USD at 1.18 for 2026 and 1.23 for 2027.Euro gains tempered by election risks”We still expect the US dollar to weaken more broadly.””However, we have made a modest adjustment to our EUR/USD forecasts because of two developments.””Taken together, these factors point to slightly less upside for EUR/USD this year…