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West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $84.00 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. WTI steadies as traders continue to assess the developments surrounding Middle East conflicts. The United States (US) and Iran ruled out an extension of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that they signed in June to end the conflict. Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump said that he is not interested in renewing the expiring agreement with Tehran. Trump insisted that Washington had leverage over Iran, citing the naval blockade of Iranian ports. “We control it with the blockade, and I like…
The Dollar Index trades near 99.50, roughly a tenth of a percent lower, having opened directly on its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and failed there inside the first minutes, with a session low just above 99.25 taking out the August range. That is the tape on the day a 60-day framework meant to end the war over the Strait of Hormuz expires with nothing agreed to replace it, which is not how a haven currency is supposed to behave on a deadline.The haven bid went somewhere elseA senior Iranian official told Reuters the country may move from a defensive…
The RBI’s FCNR(B) scheme has attracted more than $52 billion, strengthening its ability to support the rupee, but global monetary conditions have limited currency appreciation. The Reserve Bank of India’s FCNR(B) deposit mobilisation scheme has attracted more than $52 billion so far and could have crossed $80 billion, including related foreign currency borrowings, had the window remained open until the original September-end deadline. Yet, unlike the 2013 FCNR(B) programme, the rupee has failed to stage a meaningful appreciation, highlighting the influence of global monetary conditions over exchange-rate movements.Why 2013 was differentThe contrast with 2013 is striking. The earlier FCNR(B) scheme,…
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2025 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran conflict create stagflationary risks, keeping the Fed on hold. They see GDP growth slightly below trend in 2026, with 2.1% Q4/Q4, unemployment near 4.3%, and only gradual disinflation resuming in 2027.Sideways growth with stagflationary risks”We expect output growth to move sideways this year, reflecting the lingering impact of the oil shock. The Iran conflict presents stagflationary risks, which we expect will keep the Fed on hold for the entire year. AI and high-income consumers have supported…
The Indian rupee slipped on Monday after the central bank unexpectedly shortened the deadline for its discounted forex swap facility for non-resident deposits, several traders said.Persistent importer dollar demand further weighed on the rupee, while likely intervention limited losses, extending a pattern seen last week.The rupee was at 95.60 per dollar, its weakest level in two weeks, and down 0.2% on the day.The Reserve Bank of India said late on Friday it is bringing forward by a month the cutoff for its discounted forex swap facility, following more than $50 billion in inflows from non-resident Indian deposits.”There are some jitters…
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes that USD/JPY price action remains choppy, with the pair closing around 159.30 after a dip to 158.58. Intraday direction is unclear, with trading expected between 158.80 and 159.60. Over 1–3 weeks, the bias stays tilted to the upside, but gains are seen constrained within a 158.00–160.20 range.USD/JPY stays rangebound around 159.00″24-HOUR VIEW: After USD closed largely unchanged at 159.48 (+0.04%) last Thursday, we indicated the following: “We are still unable to derive much from the price action. Today, USD could trade between 159.00 and 159.70.” USD subsequently dropped to a low of…
Persistent central bank intervention that has absorbed recent pressure on the rupee and subdued moves in the currency is reminiscent of a period when the Reserve Bank of India firmly anchored its trading range, bankers say.Despite volatile crude oil prices due to war in West Asia and persistent dollar demand from hedging flows, the rupee has demonstrated remarkably muted price action since last week.State-run banks consistently offered dollars whenever the currency came under pressure, six bankers said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media.The dollar sales occurred at multiple price levels, combining…
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 13,495.00 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,455.97 it cost on Friday.The price for Gold increased to INR 157,403.00 per tola from INR 156,947.80 per tola on friday.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram13,495.0010 Grams134,949.20Tola157,403.00Troy Ounce419,741.70FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.…
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.1575 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) amid weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting central bank expectations. Traders will take more cues from the speech of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday. Retail Sales in the United States (US) fell by 0.6% MoM in July, compared to a rise of 0.2% in June, the US Census Bureau showed on Friday. This figure came in below the market consensus of a 0.1% growth. On an annual basis, Retail Sales…
India could reach a $20 trillion economy by 2036 if it can raise underlying rupee growth to around 14.2 per cent and achieve sustained annual rupee appreciation of about 3-3.6 per cent, according to a research report by domestic brokerage firm Equirus that lays out a 20-step reform agenda.Equiris estimated that these measures could lift India’s growth trajectory while strengthening the external balance, creating the conditions required for the ambitious dollar-denominated target.India has already accelerated sharply, taking 67 years from independence to build its first $2 trillion of GDP before nearly doubling the economy in the decade after 2014.Reaching $20…