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Societe Generale analysts Dev Ashish and Brendan McKenna discuss how ongoing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review uncertainty is likely to prolong policy risk for Mexico and weigh on growth and capex. They note that Banxico’s inclination to ease and new bond-buying authority intersect with their existing short EUR/MXN trade recommendation and 2-year rate receiver position, which they currently keep unchanged.Steady with USMCA uncertainty”The July 1 review will go ahead but will likely only serve as a starting point, with no immediate decision; the most probable outcome is a move toward annual reviews, prolonging policy uncertainty.””Mexico’s exports remain strong, supported by…
The rupee depreciated 67 paise to close at 95.23 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday, as a strengthening dollar index weighed on emerging market currencies.Forex traders said the USD/INR pair witnessed significant pressure due to the strengthening of the American currency in the overseas market, persistent capital outflows, and broader Asian currency weakness.Moreover, market sentiment turned highly cautious, following the breach of the psychological level of 95.00.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.67 against the American currency and traded in a range of 94.60-95.29 during the session.The rupee finally closed at 95.23 (provisional), registering a…
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang reports AUD/USD rebounded sharply from 0.6867 to 0.6930, with the move seen as stretched and intraday trade expected between 0.6890 and 0.6930, below 0.6935. Leang has shifted to a neutral 1–3 week view, projecting a 0.6870–0.6980 range, though its 1–3 month outlook remains negative toward 0.6707 if 0.6835 breaks.Australian Dollar consolidates after sharp rebound”24-HOUR VIEW: When AUD was at 0.6885 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted the following: “While the slight increase in downward momentum tilts the bias toward the downside today, any decline is likely to be contained within a 0.6865/0.6900 range. AUD…
The rupee fell 19 paise to 94.75 against the American currency in early trade on Wednesday, weighed down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market.Forex traders said whenever fresh foreign inflows enter the country, the central bank is likely to use the opportunity to rebuild its reserve position rather than allowing the rupee to strengthen too much.Moreover, uncertainty prevailed over the progress of US-Iran peace talks keeping a geopolitical risk premium in the market.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.67, then touched 94.75 against the US dollar, registering a loss of 19…
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following the previous day’s good two-way price swings and slides back below the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. This marks the third straight day of a negative move and keeps the precious metal well within striking distance of its lowest level since November 2025, touched on Tuesday. Moreover, a bullish US Dollar (USD), bolstered by uncertainty over US-Iran talks and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, backs the case for further near-term depreciation for the bullion.US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Qatar on Tuesday for talks about the…
The Indian rupee is likely to come under pressure at Wednesday’s open, weighed by higher U.S. Treasury yields, which have in turn weakened Asian currencies and dampened risk appetite.The rupee is expected to open in the 94.70-94.75 range, per traders, after settling at 94.66 on Tuesday. The currency has struggled over the past two sessions, pressured by weakness in its Asian peers, an uptick in daily importer hedging, and waning speculative interest.Over the past two-and-a-half weeks, the rupee has broadly traded in a 94.10–94.90 range, with downside seen capped by likely Reserve Bank of India intervention. The central bank has…
OCBC’s Christopher Wong observes that USD/SGD has slipped, tracking broader USD moves as risk sentiment tentatively stabilised. Bullish momentum on the daily chart has faded and RSI has fallen, leaving risks skewed to the downside. Support is seen at 1.29 and 1.2880, with resistance at 1.2980, while the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) trades around 1.65% above its model-implied mid.Pair slips with downside risk bias”USD/SGD slipped, tracking the moves in USD while broader risk sentiment tentatively stabilised. Pair was last at 1.2925 levels.””Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside.””Support at 1.29…
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Tuesday after falling to a fresh seven-month low of $3,941 in the Asian session, as dip buyers help the precious metal recover some of its losses. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,030 after hitting an intraday high of $4,063.Despite the modest intraday recovery, Gold remains on track for its worst quarter since 2013, having erased all of its gains for the year. The precious metal is down nearly 18% this quarter and is heading for its biggest monthly decline since 2008, with losses of about 11%.The downside came as geopolitical tensions in the…
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch reports that Gold briefly dipped below USD 4,000 per troy ounce before bargain buying emerged, yet the metal is still heading for its largest quarterly drop in 13 years and a steep monthly decline. A hawkish shift in US Federal Reserve expectations has lifted bond yields and the Dollar, triggering heavy ETF outflows. Upcoming US labour data is seen as pivotal.Rate expectations crush bullion”Nevertheless, with a fall of almost 14% the gold price is on course for its biggest quarterly loss in 13 years. The monthly decline in June of around 11% is one of the sharpest…
The rupee depreciated by 15 paise to close at 94.65 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, as a strengthening greenback overseas and risk-averse investor sentiment weighed on the local unit.Forex traders said the rupee slipped to 94.58 against the US dollar, driven by month-end corporate import demand and lingering risk-off sentiment. However, relatively stable global crude prices and anticipated central bank interventions supported the currency and restricted the slide.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.60 against the American currency and finally closed for the day at 94.65 (provisional), registering a decline of 15 paise from…