Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,535 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal remains on the defensive as heightened inflation concerns, due to the conflict in the Middle East, reinforce bets for higher interest rates.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened Iran to “get moving,” or seemingly face new consequences. He left China with no major breakthroughs on trade or tangible help to end the war.
“The Chinese really didn’t offer much help in resolving the conflict, and we’re seeing crude oil move up, which reinforces the inflation narrative, and that’s been very bearish for the metals,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.
CNBC reported that the US is demanding that Iran abandon its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Mehr news agency said Washington offered “no tangible concessions” while seeking “to obtain concessions that it failed to obtain during the war, which will lead to an impasse in the negotiations.”
Traders have largely priced out US interest rate cuts this year while expectations for a hike have risen, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
