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The rupee appreciated 10 paise to 92.41 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, even as the USD/INR pair faces risks from rising global tensions, especially the US-Iran conflict.Forex traders said the rupee is likely to see high volatility intra-day as the deadline for RBI’s instructions to banks to curb their overnight positions to USD 100 million closes today.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.58 against the US dollar, then gained ground to touch 92.41 against the US dollar in initial trade, registering a gain of 10 paise over its previous close.On Thursday, the…
USD/CAD gains ground after four days of losses, trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price holds losses after experiencing volatility, trading around $91.80 per barrel at the time of writing. The WTI price is down by over 11.5% for the week, at the time of writing, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.However, crude oil prices may regain ground as Israeli strikes on…
Mumbai: Indian lenders have largely exited their net open positions in overseas foreign exchange markets ahead of Friday’s regulatory deadline, multiple people familiar with the matter told ET, reflecting the urgency at individual banks amid an increasing likelihood Mint Road would offer them little by way of compliance latitude. Of the roughly $40 billion in aggregate positions, only about $4-7 billion is estimated to have remained at the end of trading on Thursday, traders said. Banks sought to complete bulk of the unwinding ahead of the April 10 deadline rather than risk last-minute adjustments. After the scaling back of open…
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $4,760 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal declines as market uncertainty persists regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire and reports of continued Middle East conflict, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Bloomberg reported on Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking direct talks with Beirut, a day after the worst bombardment of the war killed more than 300 people in Lebanon and placed the US-Iran ceasefire in jeopardy. However, there was no sign Iran was lifting its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,…
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu argues that European rate markets still discount too many hikes for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) despite an improvement in global risk sentiment following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. He highlights that current futures pricing remains well above levels at the start of the year and sees better risk-reward in pushing out hikes and even reintroducing cuts, particularly for the SNB.Markets overestimate European tightening path”Risk sentiment is rallying strongly as the U.S. and Iran reach a temporary ceasefire, but not all asset classes are responding equally. If we characterize…
ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson say Gold remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments around the US–Iran ceasefire and conflict in the Middle East. They describe volatile, headline‑driven trading, with safe‑haven demand offset by shifting risk sentiment and Dollar moves, and argue that clarity on ceasefire durability will be crucial for Gold’s ability to regain upside momentum.Geopolitics drive volatile gold trade”Conflicting geopolitical signals are driving choppy price action in gold, with safe‑haven demand offset by shifts in risk sentiment and dollar moves.””Earlier in Wednesday’s session, gold had climbed above $4,800/oz alongside global equities as a two‑week truce between the US…
The rupee fell modestly on Thursday as concerns over the longevity of the U.S.-Iran truce pushed oil prices higher, denting local stocks and bonds and weighing on risk assets globally. The rupee closed at 92.6575 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.1% on the day. Indian shares fell about 1% while the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond rose nearly 6 basis points. Regional stocks and currencies were also under pressure, with MSCI’s gauge of Asian stocks down nearly 1%.Israel bombed targets in Lebanon on Thursday, putting the Middle East ceasefire in further jeopardy after its biggest attacks of the war…
The rupee depreciated 9 paise to close at 92.63 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, as the situation in West Asia remains fragile, keeping investors wary of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.Forex traders said geopolitical uncertainty was still high amid Iran’s threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon, and markets are in a wait-and-watch mode rather than strong directional positioning.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.63 against the US dollar, then lost ground to touch an intraday low of 92.92 against the greenback. It also hit the day’s…
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu notes that EUR flows have flipped from a pre-conflict ‘hedge the Dollar’ theme to a net underheld position. With Eurozone stagflation concerns contrasting Norway’s positive terms-of-trade shock, he argues that EUR is now more sensitive to any improvement in sentiment, while Norwegian Krone (NOK) strength could stall if energy prices peak and Norges Bank resumes FX purchases.Euro underheld as NOK remains crowded”Assuming the ceasefire holds over the next two weeks, the “easiest” FX flows to realize would be mean reversion of the “extreme” moves since the beginning of the conflict. On the outflow side, emerging market…
Even as the rupee remained on a steady footing, Indian bonds dipped, and equities fell amid concerns that the Iran ceasefire may not fully restore oil supplies through the key Strait of Hormuz. The Indian rupee treaded water on Thursday as jitters over the US-Iran ceasefire ran into the lingering impact of the central bank’s forex market curbs, which have sparked an unwinding of positions and made traders wary of speculative wagers.The rupee has hovered in a 92.50-93.50 range over the last week after the central bank’s measures to curb excessive arbitrage positions were announced on March 27 and April…