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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is extending its pullback from two-week highs of 1.3844 against the US Dollar (USD) early Monday, with USD/CAD capitalizing on the renewed demand for the Greenback as a go-to safe-haven.The USD rejoices new phase of escalation in the US-Iran war as the recent ceasefire agreement appears at risk following the weekend breakdown of peace talks between both sides.In the aftermath of the fallout, US President Donald Trump vowed blockades to the Strait of Hormuz, while considering resuming limited military strikes in Iran in an attempt to break a gridlock in peace talks.However, the further upside in…

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China’s CPI inflation eased to 1.0% year-on-year after Lunar New Year, while PPI turned positive for the first time since 2022. The report highlights rising energy and transportation fuel costs, suggesting further upside for inflation and a gradual shift away from entrenched deflationary expectations in China.Energy-driven price pressures support reflation”The substantive price drops are in line with China’s typical seasonality around the Lunar New Year holiday. More importantly for the months ahead, we are starting to see the impact of higher energy prices in the data. The subcategory for transportation…

DBS Group Research expects Malaysia’s 1Q26 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 5.5% year-on-year, slightly below 6.3% in 4Q25 but still robust. Growth is seen supported by export-oriented electrical and electronics manufacturing, global AI tailwinds, construction and domestic demand. Headline inflation is projected to rise modestly to 1.7% in March, with oil-driven pressures cushioned by fiscal subsidies.AI tailwinds and mild price pressures”Malaysia’s incoming data are likely to reflect resilient economic growth and contained inflation in 1Q26, despite the Middle East shock since February 27.””We expect robust advance GDP growth estimate of 5.5% yoy in 1Q26, albeit lower than 6.3%…

TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports. The bank projects Q1 GDP at 4.8% y/y, supported by strong exports and manufacturing earlier in the quarter.Stockpiling and costs shape China outlook”After the phenomenal trade report in Jan-Feb, we expect some normalization in Mar for exports.””Imports, however, could surprise to the upside as China may rush to stockpile key goods and commodities amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.””As input…

ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that KRW is trading below 1,500, with near-term moves heavily dependent on Middle East developments. The team keeps its 1,450–1,550 trading range, expecting KRW to strengthen rapidly if the war ends. They argue recent KRW weakness stems mainly from foreign equity profit-taking, with attractive Korean equity valuations helping to stabilise the currency.War risk and equities drive Won outlook”KRW now trades below 1,500 level. The near-term move will depend heavily on the Middle East situation. Thus, we continue to keep our trading range of 1,450-1,550 for now.””We agree with Governor Rhee’s view: if the war ends,…

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports to rise for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, accelerating to 10.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in February. Electronics exports are seen outperforming on global AI demand, while non-electronics may rebound as Lunar New Year base effects fade, though petrochemicals likely face pressure from a Middle East-related naphtha supply crunch.NODX growth led by electronics”We expect Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to sustain growth for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, expanding by a faster pace of 10.3% yoy, compared with 4.0% yoy in February.””The performance was likely supported by superior growth…

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is poised to end Friday’s session flat against the US Dollar (USD), even though an improvement in market mood drove the Greenback toward four-week lows near 98.52, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). Source

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, told Reuters in an interview on Friday that if Iran conflict is resolved quickly and Oil prices come back down, a rate cut may not be out of the question.Key takeaways:If Iran conflict resolves quickly and oil prices come back down, a rate cut is ‘not out of the question’. If inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done. We had work to do on inflation before the oil price shock; now, the work just…

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao sees upside risks to China’s Q1 2026 GDP versus the bank’s 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front‑loaded public investment. Industrial production is projected to grow 5.5% year‑on‑year, while retail sales slow to 2.5%. The bank warns that secondary shocks from the Iran war could later erode China’s export advantage and prompt further policy easing.Resilient activity but external risks linger”We expect China to report a Q1 GDP growth of 4.6% yoy.””China’s Q1 GDP faces upside risks to our 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front-loaded public investment.””We expect March industrial production to grow 5.5%…

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, highlights that Taiwan’s March trade data far exceeded expectations, with exports and imports surging and the trade surplus more than doubling year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The report stresses Taiwan’s growing dependence on tech-related exports, rising export prices, and significant upside surprises that are prompting an upgrade to 2026 GDP growth forecasts despite energy-related risks.Tech-led trade boom reshapes growth outlook”Despite the upside surprise in import growth, the boom in exports far outweighed the faster imports when we look at the trade balance. Taiwan’s trade balance rose to a five-month high…