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ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that ECB President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council members are expected to maintain a broadly hawkish tone given Gulf volatility. Markets price modest tightening at the 30 April meeting and two further hikes this year. ING argues that clear progress in US‑Iran talks is needed to sustainably lift EUR/USD above 1.180.Lagarde remarks and Gulf risks guide Euro”ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak tonight in Washington. A few other Governing Council speakers are scheduled for earlier in the day. We would expect ECB officials to reiterate a broadly hawkish tone considering the lingering volatility in the…
The dollar erased gains after President Donald Trump said Iran called Monday morning and wants a deal. The remarks follow Trump’s order over the weekend to block the Strait of Hormuz following the deadlock in US-Iran peace talks that pushed oil prices higher.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 per cent. Earlier in the session the gauge was up as much as 0.5 per cent. The Japanese yen was the only among its peers in the Group of 10 against the greenback to weaken. “I think we have established the top and bottom for the dollar and G-10 currencies,” said Paresh…
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day’s bounce from the vicinity of mid-$72.00s and gains some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal climbs to the $76.80 region in the last hour, with bulls looking to build on an intraday breakout momentum above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.The XAG/USD is also trading comfortably above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall in March, reinforcing the underlying constructive bullish outlook. Adding to this, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and a marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)…
GBP/USD opened the new week on the soft side, dipping to a session low near 1.3380, but staged a strong recovery through Monday’s session to close around 1.3510, up 0.35% on the day. The move pushed the pair to its highest level since late February, decisively reclaiming the 1.3500 handle for the first time since the sell-off that followed the outbreak of the Iran conflict. The pair has now rallied over 350 pips from the early April low close to 1.3160, erasing roughly half of the decline from the year-to-date high near 1.3870.President Trump’s announcement of a US blockade of…
The USD/JPY pair is trading with a neutral tone near 159.70 on Tuesday, up 0.27%, as markets react to a dramatic escalation in geopolitical tensions following headlines that the United States (US) has moved to effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.On the one hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is capping upside in the US Dollar (USD) amid traditional safe-haven inflows as investors seek protection amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. On the other hand, Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy leaves it particularly exposed to a sustained spike in Oil prices. Meanwhile, the USD is drawing strong support from…
ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Oil markets rallied sharply after US-Iran talks collapsed, with ICE Brent jumping over 9% and NYMEX WTI moving above $105/bbl. The US plans a maritime blockade around Iranian ports, stoking supply fears. Positioning data show diverging speculative interest in Brent and WTI ahead of OPEC’s monthly report.Oil rallies on US blockade threat”Oil markets rallied sharply on Monday after US-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend. ICE Brent jumped more than 9% in early trade, while NYMEX WTI pushed above $105/bbl. In response, the US military plans to implement a blockade of all maritime…
The Indian rupee endured its steepest fall in two weeks on Monday, as oil prices climbed past $100 per barrel, while supportive dollar flows for the currency, spurred by banks’ unwinding of arbitrage positions, dissipated.The rupee closed at 93.3750 per USdollar, down 0.7 per cent on the day, its sharpest decline since March 27, the day on which the central bank rolled out measures to curb excessive rupee volatility.An unwinding of positions following the measures gave the rupee some breathing room heading into the April 10 deadline for banks to lower their net open rupee positions.With that out of the…
EUR/USD remains trapped within a tight range between 0.8695 and 0.8725.Higher Oil prices are keeping Euro upside attempts limited on Monday.On Wednesday, BoE’s Bailey and ECB’s lagarde might give a fresh impulse to the pair.The Euro (EUR) shows a netvous consolidation around the 0.8700 line against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday. Market sentiment has deteriorated following the failure of the peace talks between the US and Iran. Still, the two-week ceasefire remains in place, fuelling hopes of further negotiations and keeping market volatility at relatively low levels so far.Investors, however, have been reluctant to place large Euro bets during…
The failure of the US-Iran truce deal had its impact on the Rupee, which opened about 57 paise weaker against the US dollar on Monday.The Indian currency weakened amid a spike in global crude oil prices with no end in sight to the blockade of the arterial Strait of Hormuz, strengthening of the US dollar and continued FPI outflows from the Indian equities market.The Rupee opened at 93.30 per USD against the previous close of 92.73. It is currently trading at 93.3850.Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors, observed that a silent force — Banks unwinding their dollar positions to comply…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.6% higher to near $98.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The oil price rises after a warning from United States (US) President Donald Trump, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has instructed the navy to blockade “any or all ships trying to enter or leave” the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. This has further raised concerns over the global energy supply.US President Trump’s threats to block the Hormuz came after talks between Iran and US Vice President (VP) JD Vance failed…