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Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and colleagues outline a baseline scenario in which a US-Iran agreement this month reopens the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Brent Oil to retreat toward $86 per barrel in Q4 2026. They warn that a prolonged closure could push Brent towards $150, with stagflationary risks and recession in Europe, though global GDP is only slightly trimmed.Hormuz scenarios drive crude outlook”In the outlook, our baseline expectation is that a US-Iran deal is reached this month that allows shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, with Brent crude falling back to $86/bbl in Q4.””However, if the Strait of…
The rupee appreciated 16 paise to 95.03 against US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, as the market weighed India’s strong domestic fundamentals against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.Forex traders said the USD/INR pair opened on a positive note this morning on a slight risk off sentiment. However, the uncertainty surrounding West Asia continues to cast a shadow over financial markets and energy prices.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.16 against the US dollar, then touched 95.03 in early trade, up 16 paise from its previous close.On Monday, the rupee depreciated 34 paise to close at 95.19 against…
USD/CHF moves little after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7870 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair steadies as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm on increased safe-haven demand after Tasnim news agency indicated that Tehran has halted indirect negotiations with the United States. Traders await the Swiss Trade Balance data release due later in the day.According to the report, Iran and its “Resistance Front” allies, spanning Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq, have established an agenda to completely block the critical Strait of Hormuz and activate additional fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a means…
Mumbai: The Indian rupee was nearly unchanged on Monday and closed at 94.99%, from its previous close of 95.00. Dollar sales from state run banks, likely on behalf of the central bank, and dollar demand for hedging kept the rupee in a tight range.The currency traded from 95.03 per dollar and 94.72 on Monday. The one month forward premium stood at 4.10%, from 3.77% on Friday.The one year forward premium was at 3.21%, from 3.15% on Friday.The rupee depreciated nearly 11% in FY26. It has depreciated 0.17% in FY27 so far. However, at current levels, the rupee has appreciated 2.06%…
US President Donald Trump said that he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz “over the next week,” ABC News reported on Monday.His comments came following his direct intervention to halt a flare-up between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump expressed optimism about the negotiations while acknowledging unresolved details remain on the table. “Looking good, looking good,” he said, adding that he had quickly resolved a diplomatic “glitch” that threatened to derail progress.Trump stated that he called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and asked him not to proceed with a…
EUR/USD comes under renewed selling pressure on Monday as initial optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal fades amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1626, down nearly 0.30% on the day.Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported on Monday that Tehran has suspended message exchanges with Washington over Israel’s continued military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah.Meanwhile, Iran also accused the United States of violating the ceasefire after US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it carried out “self-defense strikes” on Iranian radar and drone facilities over the weekend. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on…
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warns of serious consequences, in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the United States (US) and Israel would face serious consequences if there were any military action across all fronts, including Lebanon.“A ceasefire between Iran and the United States constitutes, without any ambiguity, a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon. Any violation of this ceasefire on one front shall be considered a violation of it across all fronts. The United States and Israel bear responsibility for the consequences of any breach of the truce,” Araghchi wrote.Market ReactionThere seems to be…
Rupee ended nearly flat on Monday as modest gains spurred by flows connected toMSCI’s equity index rebalancing were eroded by persistent hedging demand from corporates, while traders kept their focus firmly on the upcoming monetary policy decision.The rupee closed at 94.99 per dollar, almost unchanged from its close at 95.00 on Friday.The currency gained in early trading on the back of concurrent dollar sales from foreign and state-run banks, but activity faded in the latter half of the session, a private sector bank trader said.In the near-term, the rupee is likely to be rangebound between 94.50-96 with intra-day flows dictating…
Crude prices are trading higher on Monday, with the barrel of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) changing hands at $89.40 at the time of writing, nearly $3 higher than last week’s closing price. Recent skirmishes between the US and Iran and the extension of the Israeli occupation in Lebanon are triggering fears of further escalation of the war.The peace process between Washington and Tehran remains stalled, with the memorandum of understanding still awaiting US President Donald Trump’s signature since Friday, and tensions in the Gulf region escalatingThe US announced a new wave of strikes on Iran’s Military sites,…
USD/CHF gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 0.7830 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens ahead of the release of key economic data including, Swiss Real Retail Sales for April, Q1 Gross Domestic Product, and May’s SVME – Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Traders will shift their focus on the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI, which provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector.The USD/CHF pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) maintains its strength on increased safe-haven demand, driven by market participants…