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ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, highlights that Taiwan’s March trade data far exceeded expectations, with exports and imports surging and the trade surplus more than doubling year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The report stresses Taiwan’s growing dependence on tech-related exports, rising export prices, and significant upside surprises that are prompting an upgrade to 2026 GDP growth forecasts despite energy-related risks.Tech-led trade boom reshapes growth outlook”Despite the upside surprise in import growth, the boom in exports far outweighed the faster imports when we look at the trade balance. Taiwan’s trade balance rose to a five-month high…
Gold (XAU/USD) price remains steady on Friday, poised to finish the week with gains of almost 2% as the US Dollar tumbles amid optimism about Iran-US talks in Pakistan throughout the weekend. Also, a mildly high US inflation report trimmed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish bets for 2026. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,763, up 0.01%.Gold’s faith in US-Iran talksAn improvement in risk appetite pushed bullion prices higher, even though Israel’s attacks on Lebanon continued, threatening to end the two-week ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran. On the other hand, Tehran has also failed to open the Strait of…
The dollar slipped on Friday, putting it on track for its largest weekly drop since January, as investors sold safe-haven assets on the assumption that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the Gulf.The dollar had towered in March as one of the few bastions of safety as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran sent oil prices surging and hit stocks and gold, while inflation worries pressured bonds.But since a fragile ceasefire was agreed on Tuesday, those positions are being unwound.The euro has rallied 1.8% this week to trade at $1.17255, while sterling has gained 2% since…
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said in a post on X on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin.Qalibaf posted on X:“Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) fell towards 98.60 earlier in the day, but seems little changed by the news. US Dollar Price…
Not long ago, a foreign exchange rate was something you checked after a deal was structured, a final adjustment, a hedging footnote. Today, in cross-border distressed transactions, the rupee rate is often the first conversation and, increasingly, the last one.As of late March 2026, the USD/INR exchange rate hit an all-time low, crossing the 95 level, amid compounding pressures: geopolitical fractures in the Middle East, elevated crude oil prices, aggressive portfolio outflows, and a Reserve Bank of India stretched between defending the currency and managing domestic liquidity. For practitioners in India’s distressed asset ecosystem, this is not macroeconomic background noise.…
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights extreme dislocation in Oil markets, with North Sea Forties Blend near $147/bbl and Dated Brent far above futures as Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz cuts flows to 8% of normal. Additional supply losses from Saudi Arabia deepen fears of prolonged shortages, particularly in Asia, keeping Brent, WTI and Omani Crude supported.Physical stress drives Brent dislocation”Global oil markets saw acute physical tightness as North Sea Forties Blend surged to nearly $147/bbl, while Dated Brent rose 7% to $131.96, significantly above Brent futures at $97.20, reflecting severe dislocation between physical and…
The rupee pared initial gains and settled for the day 17 paise lower at 92.68 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by risks from rising global tensions, especially the US-Iran conflict.Forex traders said the rupee witnessed high volatility as the deadline for the RBI’s instructions to banks to curb their overnight positions to $100 million closes on Friday amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.58 against the US dollar, then lost ground to touch an intra-day low of 92.76 against the greenback. It also hit the day’s high of 92.41…
India plans to move ahead with a proposal mandating that banks report offshore rupee derivative trades despite objections from lenders, two sources familiar with the matter said, in an attempt to bring transparency to a market that has amplified pressure on the currency.In February, the Reserve Bank of India proposed that banks report rupee foreign exchange derivative transactions undertaken globally by their related parties, arguing it would support more efficient price discovery.The RBI wants lenders to start sharing data on at least 70% of such derivative transactions, starting February 2027. Domestic banks are already required to report all derivative transactions,…
India’s boldest effort in a decade to support the rupee runs the risk of pushing away the global investors it’s spent years wooing.As the currency hit new lows amid the Iran war, the Reserve Bank of India forced local banks to unwind bearish bets across onshore and offshore markets. The lack of an immediate explanation rattled the lenders and investors, leaving them unsure of the RBI’s intent and questioning its handling of risks, according to bankers, who asked not to be identified discussing client matters.The costSince the curbs, the rupee has gained more than 2 per cent to 92.59 per…
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage argues that Q1 US equities will be driven more by forward guidance than reported earnings, with consensus S&P 500 earnings growth around 13% and wide dispersion in forecasts. AI monetization, margin expansion and tax relief are key supports, while Dollar strength, energy shocks and sector rotations are likely to shape investor reactions to EPS surprises.Guidance, AI and margins in focus”Q1 reporting will focus more on outlooks than results. The consensus earnings growth is 13%, but the forecast, varying from 9% to 19%, is wide. Early corporate guidance has also been notable, with…