Of the roughly $40 billion in aggregate positions, only about $4-7 billion is estimated to have remained at the end of trading on Thursday, traders said. Banks sought to complete bulk of the unwinding ahead of the April 10 deadline rather than risk last-minute adjustments.
After the scaling back of open positions to the now permitted threshold of $100 million, the rupee is expected to trade in the 93/$ to 94.50/$ range, with a gradual deprecating bias, traders said. On the other hand, gains may be capped at 92.50/$.
SBI, which had about $5 billion in net open positions, squared up on Thursday
On Thursday, the currency traded in 92.94/$ -92.53/$, and ended at 92.65/$, versus its previous close of 92.58/$. Before the measures took effect, the rupee had hit historic lows of 95.22 to a dollar on March 30.
SBI, which had about $5 billion in net open positions according to Bloomberg, squared up on Thursday, traders said. “SBI sold dollars around 92.94/$ to square up its net open positions in the last hour of the trade at around 2:30 PM on Thursday. I think about $4-6 billion positions are yet to be squared up at a system level,” a trader from a state-run bank said.
The central bank imposed curbs in two phases to protect the rupee, which lost nearly 10% in FY26 to rank as Asia’s worst performer. The Iran war exacerbated its retreat, with nearly half the decline being reported in March after energy supply disruptions caused crude oil prices to surge to their highest since the start of the Ukraine war.
‘UPSIDE CAPPED’
“A 92.50/$ level is likely to be the support as dollar buying happens at these levels and chances of appreciating from there is less. But it looks like we are headed toward further weakness from next week, as there is no dollar selling and everyone is a buyer,” said Sajal Gupta, head of forex and commodities, Nuvama. Gupta expects the rupee to trade between 93.50/$ and 94.50/$.
“Higher crude prices, yields, overseas fund outflows and the dollar index would keep the rupee under pressure,” he said. Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors, concurred that gains for the rupee could well be limited.
“Chances of the rupee appreciating from 92.50/$ levels are very low, as importer and oil companies buy at this level,” said Bhansali. The central bank’s latest monetary policy report (MPR) shows it expects the rupees to average 94/$ in FY27 through which policymakers expect average oil prices at $85 per barrel.
