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BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights extreme dislocation in Oil markets, with North Sea Forties Blend near $147/bbl and Dated Brent far above futures as Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz cuts flows to 8% of normal. Additional supply losses from Saudi Arabia deepen fears of prolonged shortages, particularly in Asia, keeping Brent, WTI and Omani Crude supported.Physical stress drives Brent dislocation”Global oil markets saw acute physical tightness as North Sea Forties Blend surged to nearly $147/bbl, while Dated Brent rose 7% to $131.96, significantly above Brent futures at $97.20, reflecting severe dislocation between physical and…
The rupee pared initial gains and settled for the day 17 paise lower at 92.68 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by risks from rising global tensions, especially the US-Iran conflict.Forex traders said the rupee witnessed high volatility as the deadline for the RBI’s instructions to banks to curb their overnight positions to $100 million closes on Friday amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.58 against the US dollar, then lost ground to touch an intra-day low of 92.76 against the greenback. It also hit the day’s high of 92.41…
India plans to move ahead with a proposal mandating that banks report offshore rupee derivative trades despite objections from lenders, two sources familiar with the matter said, in an attempt to bring transparency to a market that has amplified pressure on the currency.In February, the Reserve Bank of India proposed that banks report rupee foreign exchange derivative transactions undertaken globally by their related parties, arguing it would support more efficient price discovery.The RBI wants lenders to start sharing data on at least 70% of such derivative transactions, starting February 2027. Domestic banks are already required to report all derivative transactions,…
India’s boldest effort in a decade to support the rupee runs the risk of pushing away the global investors it’s spent years wooing.As the currency hit new lows amid the Iran war, the Reserve Bank of India forced local banks to unwind bearish bets across onshore and offshore markets. The lack of an immediate explanation rattled the lenders and investors, leaving them unsure of the RBI’s intent and questioning its handling of risks, according to bankers, who asked not to be identified discussing client matters.The costSince the curbs, the rupee has gained more than 2 per cent to 92.59 per…
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage argues that Q1 US equities will be driven more by forward guidance than reported earnings, with consensus S&P 500 earnings growth around 13% and wide dispersion in forecasts. AI monetization, margin expansion and tax relief are key supports, while Dollar strength, energy shocks and sector rotations are likely to shape investor reactions to EPS surprises.Guidance, AI and margins in focus”Q1 reporting will focus more on outlooks than results. The consensus earnings growth is 13%, but the forecast, varying from 9% to 19%, is wide. Early corporate guidance has also been notable, with…
The rupee appreciated 10 paise to 92.41 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, even as the USD/INR pair faces risks from rising global tensions, especially the US-Iran conflict.Forex traders said the rupee is likely to see high volatility intra-day as the deadline for RBI’s instructions to banks to curb their overnight positions to USD 100 million closes today.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.58 against the US dollar, then gained ground to touch 92.41 against the US dollar in initial trade, registering a gain of 10 paise over its previous close.On Thursday, the…
USD/CAD gains ground after four days of losses, trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price holds losses after experiencing volatility, trading around $91.80 per barrel at the time of writing. The WTI price is down by over 11.5% for the week, at the time of writing, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.However, crude oil prices may regain ground as Israeli strikes on…
Mumbai: Indian lenders have largely exited their net open positions in overseas foreign exchange markets ahead of Friday’s regulatory deadline, multiple people familiar with the matter told ET, reflecting the urgency at individual banks amid an increasing likelihood Mint Road would offer them little by way of compliance latitude. Of the roughly $40 billion in aggregate positions, only about $4-7 billion is estimated to have remained at the end of trading on Thursday, traders said. Banks sought to complete bulk of the unwinding ahead of the April 10 deadline rather than risk last-minute adjustments. After the scaling back of open…
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $4,760 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal declines as market uncertainty persists regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire and reports of continued Middle East conflict, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Bloomberg reported on Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking direct talks with Beirut, a day after the worst bombardment of the war killed more than 300 people in Lebanon and placed the US-Iran ceasefire in jeopardy. However, there was no sign Iran was lifting its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,…
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu argues that European rate markets still discount too many hikes for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) despite an improvement in global risk sentiment following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. He highlights that current futures pricing remains well above levels at the start of the year and sees better risk-reward in pushing out hikes and even reintroducing cuts, particularly for the SNB.Markets overestimate European tightening path”Risk sentiment is rallying strongly as the U.S. and Iran reach a temporary ceasefire, but not all asset classes are responding equally. If we characterize…