Author: admin
ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Oil markets rallied sharply after US-Iran talks collapsed, with ICE Brent jumping over 9% and NYMEX WTI moving above $105/bbl. The US plans a maritime blockade around Iranian ports, stoking supply fears. Positioning data show diverging speculative interest in Brent and WTI ahead of OPEC’s monthly report.Oil rallies on US blockade threat”Oil markets rallied sharply on Monday after US-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend. ICE Brent jumped more than 9% in early trade, while NYMEX WTI pushed above $105/bbl. In response, the US military plans to implement a blockade of all maritime…
The Indian rupee endured its steepest fall in two weeks on Monday, as oil prices climbed past $100 per barrel, while supportive dollar flows for the currency, spurred by banks’ unwinding of arbitrage positions, dissipated.The rupee closed at 93.3750 per USdollar, down 0.7 per cent on the day, its sharpest decline since March 27, the day on which the central bank rolled out measures to curb excessive rupee volatility.An unwinding of positions following the measures gave the rupee some breathing room heading into the April 10 deadline for banks to lower their net open rupee positions.With that out of the…
EUR/USD remains trapped within a tight range between 0.8695 and 0.8725.Higher Oil prices are keeping Euro upside attempts limited on Monday.On Wednesday, BoE’s Bailey and ECB’s lagarde might give a fresh impulse to the pair.The Euro (EUR) shows a netvous consolidation around the 0.8700 line against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday. Market sentiment has deteriorated following the failure of the peace talks between the US and Iran. Still, the two-week ceasefire remains in place, fuelling hopes of further negotiations and keeping market volatility at relatively low levels so far.Investors, however, have been reluctant to place large Euro bets during…
The failure of the US-Iran truce deal had its impact on the Rupee, which opened about 57 paise weaker against the US dollar on Monday.The Indian currency weakened amid a spike in global crude oil prices with no end in sight to the blockade of the arterial Strait of Hormuz, strengthening of the US dollar and continued FPI outflows from the Indian equities market.The Rupee opened at 93.30 per USD against the previous close of 92.73. It is currently trading at 93.3850.Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors, observed that a silent force — Banks unwinding their dollar positions to comply…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.6% higher to near $98.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The oil price rises after a warning from United States (US) President Donald Trump, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has instructed the navy to blockade “any or all ships trying to enter or leave” the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. This has further raised concerns over the global energy supply.US President Trump’s threats to block the Hormuz came after talks between Iran and US Vice President (VP) JD Vance failed…
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is extending its pullback from two-week highs of 1.3844 against the US Dollar (USD) early Monday, with USD/CAD capitalizing on the renewed demand for the Greenback as a go-to safe-haven.The USD rejoices new phase of escalation in the US-Iran war as the recent ceasefire agreement appears at risk following the weekend breakdown of peace talks between both sides.In the aftermath of the fallout, US President Donald Trump vowed blockades to the Strait of Hormuz, while considering resuming limited military strikes in Iran in an attempt to break a gridlock in peace talks.However, the further upside in…
ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China’s CPI inflation eased to 1.0% year-on-year after Lunar New Year, while PPI turned positive for the first time since 2022. The report highlights rising energy and transportation fuel costs, suggesting further upside for inflation and a gradual shift away from entrenched deflationary expectations in China.Energy-driven price pressures support reflation”The substantive price drops are in line with China’s typical seasonality around the Lunar New Year holiday. More importantly for the months ahead, we are starting to see the impact of higher energy prices in the data. The subcategory for transportation…
DBS Group Research expects Malaysia’s 1Q26 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 5.5% year-on-year, slightly below 6.3% in 4Q25 but still robust. Growth is seen supported by export-oriented electrical and electronics manufacturing, global AI tailwinds, construction and domestic demand. Headline inflation is projected to rise modestly to 1.7% in March, with oil-driven pressures cushioned by fiscal subsidies.AI tailwinds and mild price pressures”Malaysia’s incoming data are likely to reflect resilient economic growth and contained inflation in 1Q26, despite the Middle East shock since February 27.””We expect robust advance GDP growth estimate of 5.5% yoy in 1Q26, albeit lower than 6.3%…
TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports. The bank projects Q1 GDP at 4.8% y/y, supported by strong exports and manufacturing earlier in the quarter.Stockpiling and costs shape China outlook”After the phenomenal trade report in Jan-Feb, we expect some normalization in Mar for exports.””Imports, however, could surprise to the upside as China may rush to stockpile key goods and commodities amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.””As input…
ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that KRW is trading below 1,500, with near-term moves heavily dependent on Middle East developments. The team keeps its 1,450–1,550 trading range, expecting KRW to strengthen rapidly if the war ends. They argue recent KRW weakness stems mainly from foreign equity profit-taking, with attractive Korean equity valuations helping to stabilise the currency.War risk and equities drive Won outlook”KRW now trades below 1,500 level. The near-term move will depend heavily on the Middle East situation. Thus, we continue to keep our trading range of 1,450-1,550 for now.””We agree with Governor Rhee’s view: if the war ends,…