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DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports to rise for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, accelerating to 10.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in February. Electronics exports are seen outperforming on global AI demand, while non-electronics may rebound as Lunar New Year base effects fade, though petrochemicals likely face pressure from a Middle East-related naphtha supply crunch.NODX growth led by electronics”We expect Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to sustain growth for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, expanding by a faster pace of 10.3% yoy, compared with 4.0% yoy in February.””The performance was likely supported by superior growth…
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is poised to end Friday’s session flat against the US Dollar (USD), even though an improvement in market mood drove the Greenback toward four-week lows near 98.52, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). Source
Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, told Reuters in an interview on Friday that if Iran conflict is resolved quickly and Oil prices come back down, a rate cut may not be out of the question.Key takeaways:If Iran conflict resolves quickly and oil prices come back down, a rate cut is ‘not out of the question’. If inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done. We had work to do on inflation before the oil price shock; now, the work just…
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao sees upside risks to China’s Q1 2026 GDP versus the bank’s 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front‑loaded public investment. Industrial production is projected to grow 5.5% year‑on‑year, while retail sales slow to 2.5%. The bank warns that secondary shocks from the Iran war could later erode China’s export advantage and prompt further policy easing.Resilient activity but external risks linger”We expect China to report a Q1 GDP growth of 4.6% yoy.””China’s Q1 GDP faces upside risks to our 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front-loaded public investment.””We expect March industrial production to grow 5.5%…
ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, highlights that Taiwan’s March trade data far exceeded expectations, with exports and imports surging and the trade surplus more than doubling year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The report stresses Taiwan’s growing dependence on tech-related exports, rising export prices, and significant upside surprises that are prompting an upgrade to 2026 GDP growth forecasts despite energy-related risks.Tech-led trade boom reshapes growth outlook”Despite the upside surprise in import growth, the boom in exports far outweighed the faster imports when we look at the trade balance. Taiwan’s trade balance rose to a five-month high…
Gold (XAU/USD) price remains steady on Friday, poised to finish the week with gains of almost 2% as the US Dollar tumbles amid optimism about Iran-US talks in Pakistan throughout the weekend. Also, a mildly high US inflation report trimmed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish bets for 2026. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,763, up 0.01%.Gold’s faith in US-Iran talksAn improvement in risk appetite pushed bullion prices higher, even though Israel’s attacks on Lebanon continued, threatening to end the two-week ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran. On the other hand, Tehran has also failed to open the Strait of…
The dollar slipped on Friday, putting it on track for its largest weekly drop since January, as investors sold safe-haven assets on the assumption that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the Gulf.The dollar had towered in March as one of the few bastions of safety as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran sent oil prices surging and hit stocks and gold, while inflation worries pressured bonds.But since a fragile ceasefire was agreed on Tuesday, those positions are being unwound.The euro has rallied 1.8% this week to trade at $1.17255, while sterling has gained 2% since…
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said in a post on X on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin.Qalibaf posted on X:“Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) fell towards 98.60 earlier in the day, but seems little changed by the news. US Dollar Price…
Not long ago, a foreign exchange rate was something you checked after a deal was structured, a final adjustment, a hedging footnote. Today, in cross-border distressed transactions, the rupee rate is often the first conversation and, increasingly, the last one.As of late March 2026, the USD/INR exchange rate hit an all-time low, crossing the 95 level, amid compounding pressures: geopolitical fractures in the Middle East, elevated crude oil prices, aggressive portfolio outflows, and a Reserve Bank of India stretched between defending the currency and managing domestic liquidity. For practitioners in India’s distressed asset ecosystem, this is not macroeconomic background noise.…
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights extreme dislocation in Oil markets, with North Sea Forties Blend near $147/bbl and Dated Brent far above futures as Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz cuts flows to 8% of normal. Additional supply losses from Saudi Arabia deepen fears of prolonged shortages, particularly in Asia, keeping Brent, WTI and Omani Crude supported.Physical stress drives Brent dislocation”Global oil markets saw acute physical tightness as North Sea Forties Blend surged to nearly $147/bbl, while Dated Brent rose 7% to $131.96, significantly above Brent futures at $97.20, reflecting severe dislocation between physical and…