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ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson say Gold remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments around the US–Iran ceasefire and conflict in the Middle East. They describe volatile, headline‑driven trading, with safe‑haven demand offset by shifting risk sentiment and Dollar moves, and argue that clarity on ceasefire durability will be crucial for Gold’s ability to regain upside momentum.Geopolitics drive volatile gold trade”Conflicting geopolitical signals are driving choppy price action in gold, with safe‑haven demand offset by shifts in risk sentiment and dollar moves.””Earlier in Wednesday’s session, gold had climbed above $4,800/oz alongside global equities as a two‑week truce between the US…
The rupee fell modestly on Thursday as concerns over the longevity of the U.S.-Iran truce pushed oil prices higher, denting local stocks and bonds and weighing on risk assets globally. The rupee closed at 92.6575 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.1% on the day. Indian shares fell about 1% while the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond rose nearly 6 basis points. Regional stocks and currencies were also under pressure, with MSCI’s gauge of Asian stocks down nearly 1%.Israel bombed targets in Lebanon on Thursday, putting the Middle East ceasefire in further jeopardy after its biggest attacks of the war…
The rupee depreciated 9 paise to close at 92.63 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, as the situation in West Asia remains fragile, keeping investors wary of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.Forex traders said geopolitical uncertainty was still high amid Iran’s threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon, and markets are in a wait-and-watch mode rather than strong directional positioning.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.63 against the US dollar, then lost ground to touch an intraday low of 92.92 against the greenback. It also hit the day’s…
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu notes that EUR flows have flipped from a pre-conflict ‘hedge the Dollar’ theme to a net underheld position. With Eurozone stagflation concerns contrasting Norway’s positive terms-of-trade shock, he argues that EUR is now more sensitive to any improvement in sentiment, while Norwegian Krone (NOK) strength could stall if energy prices peak and Norges Bank resumes FX purchases.Euro underheld as NOK remains crowded”Assuming the ceasefire holds over the next two weeks, the “easiest” FX flows to realize would be mean reversion of the “extreme” moves since the beginning of the conflict. On the outflow side, emerging market…
Even as the rupee remained on a steady footing, Indian bonds dipped, and equities fell amid concerns that the Iran ceasefire may not fully restore oil supplies through the key Strait of Hormuz. The Indian rupee treaded water on Thursday as jitters over the US-Iran ceasefire ran into the lingering impact of the central bank’s forex market curbs, which have sparked an unwinding of positions and made traders wary of speculative wagers.The rupee has hovered in a 92.50-93.50 range over the last week after the central bank’s measures to curb excessive arbitrage positions were announced on March 27 and April…
3D Gears with Indian Rupee symbol. 3D Rendered illustration. | Photo Credit: Sibani Das The rupee depreciated 17 paise to 92.71 against US dollar in early trade on Thursday as the fragile ceasefire and Iran’s threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon kept investors wary.Forex traders said markets are in a wait-and-watch mode rather than strong directional positioning as the situation in West Asia remains fragile.Geo-Political uncertainty was still high amid Iran’s threat to step out of the talks if Israel kept bombing Lebanon, keeping investors wary of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.At…
Gold (XAU/USD) once again shows some resilience below the $4,700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day’s retracement slide from a three-week high. Skepticism over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire benefits the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and acts as a headwind for the commodity. However, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish outlook holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and helps limit the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.Israel carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, saying that the ceasefire was not…
Sporadic fighting continued in the Middle East, including in Lebanon, killing hundreds of people and drawing a threat of retaliation from Iran, Reuters reported on Thursday. Iran officials cast that as violating the terms of the less than day-old ceasefire, suggesting that it would be “unreasonable” to proceed with talks to forge a permanent peace deal with the United States (US).The warning from Iran’s lead negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, laid bare the continued volatility in the region. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz stopped after Israel expanded Lebanon strikes. The White House announced…
MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Wednesday that its recent actions in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market are temporary and aimed at curbing excessive currency speculation stemming from the West Asia conflict.The regulator, however, did not specify the duration of the operational curbs on lenders while indicating that the April 10 (Friday) deadline for banks to scale back their net open positions to $100 million would not be extended.”These measures are not in any sense signalling any structural change. We stand committed to the development, broadening and deepening of these markets and the internationalisation of rupee. So,…
Gold (XAU/USD) gives back part of its earlier gains after rising to three-week highs on Wednesday following news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,755, up nearly 1% on the day after touching an intraday high of $4,857.US-Iran ceasefire lifts market sentimentUS President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he had agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks, provided that Tehran ensures the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also stated that…