The Euro (EUR) nudges up against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday but remains within the previous days’ range, trading at 1.1910 at the time of writing, more than 1% above last week’s lows. Downbeat US data increased concerns about the economic outlook ahead of the release of January’s delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, and increased negative pressure on an already weak USD.
US Retail Sales remained flat in December, against expectations, suggesting that consumption, which accounts for nearly 70% of the GDP, will have a weaker contribution to US growth in the last quarter of 2025.
Beyond that, labour costs slowed down in the fourth quarter, pointing to a steadier labour market and providing further reasons for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease its monetary policy.
The economic calendar is thin during Wednesday’s European session, and all eyes will be on the US Nonfarm Payrolls Report due later in the day. Later on, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will take the stage. European Central Bank (ECB) committee member Isabel Schnabel is also expected to meet the press during the US trading session.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.69% | -0.33% | -0.52% | -0.29% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | -0.17% | -0.53% | -0.14% | -0.33% | -0.10% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | 0.17% | -0.38% | 0.03% | -0.16% | 0.06% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.69% | 0.53% | 0.38% | 0.39% | 0.19% | 0.42% | 0.45% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | 0.14% | -0.03% | -0.39% | -0.19% | 0.03% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.52% | 0.33% | 0.16% | -0.19% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.29% | 0.10% | -0.06% | -0.42% | -0.03% | -0.23% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.45% | -0.04% | -0.25% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest market Movers: Soft data keeps the US Dollar on the defensive
- US consumption data added pressure to an already soft US Dollar on Tuesday. Retail Sales remained flat in December, against expectations of a 0.4% growth and following a 0.6% increase in November. The Retail Sales Control Group, also known as the “core” Retail Sales have contracted 0.1% with November’s reading revised down to a 0.2% growth from the previoius 0.4% estimation.
- Also on Tuesday, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the US Employment Cost Index slowed down to 0.7% in Q4 from 0.8% in the previous quarter, with the annual rate growing at its slowest pace since 2021.
- Recent US data has endorsed the dovish party of the Federal Reserve’s committee, prompting investors to ramp up their bets for monetary easing in 2026. Futures markets are pricing nearly 75% chances of a rate cut in June and between two and three cuts before December, according to the CME Fedwatch tool, and compared with the quarter-point monetary easing projected by the Fed.
- Later on Wednesday, US NFP data is expected to show a 70K increase in payrolls in January, up from the 50K net jobs created in December. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.4%, and wages are expected to have slowed down to a 3.6% yearly growth, from 3.8% in December.
- On Monday, the White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett affirmed that job growth will remain slow in the coming months due to US President Donald Trump’s migration policies and a sharp increase in productivity, which has dampened expectations for a bright NFP report.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD recovery stalls below 1.1935
The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD trading sideways between the 38.2% and the 50% Fibonacci retracements of the late January selloff. The immediate bias remains positive, although technical indicators highlight a softer momentum.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, but the MACD line seems ready to cross below the signal line in what would be a bearish move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), on the other hand, stands above 60, showing a moderate bullish strength.
The mentioned 50% Fibonacci level and Monday’s high, in the area of 1.1925, are closing the path towards the January 30 high near 1.1975. On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement aligns with session lows around 1.1885. A confirmation below that level would add pressure towards Monday’s low near 1.1815.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
