The rupee closed at 90.70 per dollar, down 0.1% from its close in the previous session.
Traders pointed to mixed corporate interest in the earlier half of the session, which kept the rupee on an even keel but dollar demand from overseas lenders, likely on behalf of custodial clients, weighed on the currency in afternoon trading.
India’s benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, were little changed on the day, while the MSCI’s gauge of Asian shares outside Japan was up about 1%.
Similar to local equities, the rupee was also a laggard in Asia, with peers rising between 0.1% and 0.5%, helped by a broadly weaker dollar.
The dollar index was last at 96.5 and has declined about 1% so far this month. U.S. jobs data for January, delayed from last week, could be the next test for the dollar. The data is due later in the day.
“Today’s jobs report is a pivotal event for the FX market. A materially weak print would likely pave the way for markets to price in a cut in April, and for DXY (dollar index) to test 96.0 in the coming days,” analysts at ING said in a note. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 70,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.4%, according to a Reuters poll. Money markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a U.S. rate cut in April.
Local swap markets, though, are signalling that the Reserve Bank of India’s rate-cut cycle has run its course.
