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RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how Euro sentiment has cooled after optimism around Germany’s debt brake, with political risks and structural headwinds weighing on the currency. The bank notes EUR/USD is already priced for another ECB hike and expects sideways trading near current levels in the coming months, with only a modest upward bias further out.Euro sentiment cools after 2025 surge”While higher short-term interest rates are currency supportive, the market is already fully priced for another ECB rate hike this year, suggesting that one more policy move is unlikely to offer much support for the EUR. On balance, we…
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower by 4 paise at 95.52 against the US dollar and later traded in the range of 95.58 to 95.28 during the day. The rupee appreciated by 7 paise to settle at 95.41 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday even as crude oil prices firmed up and the greenback strengthened in the global markets.A recovery in the stock markets and dollar selling by state-run lenders supported the local currency amid rising volatility triggered by the fresh escalation in the West Asia crisis.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened…
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency.Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor…
The rupee fell 4 paise to 95.52 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday, weighed down by surging crude oil prices after fresh tensions in West Asia rattled sentiments worldwide, raising fears of uncertainties over global trade.According to analysts, oil prices soared to their highest point in weeks after President Donald Trump announced an end to the ceasefire with Iran in response to Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and on American military sites in other Gulf nations.However, positive sentiment in domestic equity markets supported the Indian currency, they said.At the interbank foreign exchange…
USD/IDR extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 18,140 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) holds losses ahead of May’s Retail Sales data due later in the day. US weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be eyed later in the North American session.The upside of the USD/IDR pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) struggles following the release of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes. The committee remains deeply divided over the trajectory of inflation, specifically whether it will remain sticky or begin to cool as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East…
The U.S. dollar held firm against most major currencies on Thursday as renewed Gulf tensions revived safe-haven bids while surging oil prices boosted rate hike bets, keeping the Japanese yen under pressure. The dollar fetched 162.41 yen, hovering near the strongest level since July 1. The euro and the British pound were largely flat and traded at $1.1426 and $1.3392, respectively. The New Zealand dollar remained well bid after the previous day’s rate hike and the central bank’s hawkish stance, extending its gains by 0.5% to $0.5725. The Australian dollar added 0.1% at $0.6936.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the…
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,075 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its downside as US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran has ended, stoking concerns that a renewal of war could again drive inflation and push up interest rates.Reuters reported on Thursday that Trump stated that an interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was “over.” Additionally, US President threatened to bomb Iran for a second day and reimpose the US naval blockade in retaliation for attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”The main factor for today’s move…
currency converter concept colored arrow with icons. istock photo for BL | Photo Credit: anoopkrishnan The rupee on Wednesday felt the ripple effect of hardening crude oil prices, which jumped on US President Donald Trump’s comments that the “ceasefire with Iran is over”, the US launching strikes on Iran and the latter attacking a tanker from Qatar near the Strait of Hormuz. Government security (G-Sec) yields also spiked in response to the jump in crude oil prices.India imports almost 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements. Any increase in crude oil prices has a direct impact on import bill,…
The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts modest gains during the North American session on Wednesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump’s said the deal with Iran was “over” after both countries exchanged attacks over the last couple of days. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3371, up 0.09%.GBP/USD steadies as geopolitical risk offsets Dollar strengthDuring the last couple of days, Tehran and Washington exchanged blows after Iran hit two vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a response from the US. The US CENTCOM reported that it attacked 80 targets…
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights growing fragility in global markets as President Trump declares the Iran ceasefire over and U.S. strikes in the Strait of Hormuz reignite Oil volatility. Brent, WTI and Middle Eastern benchmarks have jumped around 5%, yet inflation expectations remain intact and positioning data show core energy and inflation hedges in place, limiting broader disruption for now.Ceasefire doubts lift crude benchmarks”Markets are starting to look fragile. President Trump is now openly questioning the durability of the ceasefire, while exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying. For markets and the global economy, the prospect of a…