Author: admin

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights growing fragility in global markets as President Trump declares the Iran ceasefire over and U.S. strikes in the Strait of Hormuz reignite Oil volatility. Brent, WTI and Middle Eastern benchmarks have jumped around 5%, yet inflation expectations remain intact and positioning data show core energy and inflation hedges in place, limiting broader disruption for now.Ceasefire doubts lift crude benchmarks”Markets are starting to look fragile. President Trump is now openly questioning the durability of the ceasefire, while exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying. For markets and the global economy, the prospect of a…

The Indian rupee dropped to its weakest level in nearly a month on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the interim accord with Iran to end the war was “over,” sending oil prices soaring and hurting Asian currencies.Traders said the Reserve Bank of India had likely intervened in the foreign exchange market to limit ‌the rupee’s fall ⁠via ⁠dollar sales from state-run banks.The currency closed at 95.5550 per dollar, down 0.6% on the day. ​It had touched a low of 95.60, its weakest since June 11.Oil prices jumped about ​6% on Wednesday, hitting a two-week high after U.S. President…

Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027. Commerzbank sees this shift eroding PLN’s carry and supporting underperformance versus CZK.Rate-hike narrative replaced by easing talk”Headline CPI slowed to 2.5%y/y in June, weaker than consensus; more importantly, the month-on-month price change turned negative and, after seasonal-adjustment and smoothing, worked out to near-zero. In other words, the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting impulse;…

The rupee slipped 20 paise to 95.16 against the greenback in early trade on Wednesday as the US launched fresh strikes on Iran after Tehran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up crude oil prices and strengthening the dollar.A weaker opening in the domestic equity markets further pressured the local unit, according to forex traders.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.15 against the US dollar before slipping further to 95.16, down 20 paise from its previous close.On Tuesday, the rupee appreciated 47 paise to close at 94.96 against the US dollar.”The rupee opened…

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.23% higher to near 0.6943 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the door open for further monetary policy tightening, if needed, to bring inflation back to the central bank’s target. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.21%-0.50%0.03%EUR0.03%0.05%0.17%-0.00%-0.18%-0.49%0.05%GBP-0.03%-0.05%0.13%-0.03%-0.25%-0.52%-0.03%JPY-0.15%-0.17%-0.13%-0.18%-0.34%-0.65%-0.15%CAD0.02%0.00%0.03%0.18%-0.18%-0.48%0.02%AUD0.21%0.18%0.25%0.34%0.18%-0.30%0.18%NZD0.50%0.49%0.52%0.65%0.48%0.30%0.49%CHF-0.03%-0.05%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.18%-0.49% The heat…

Since January 2025, the Rupee has depreciated by ~9%. INR was amongst the weakest currencies in Asia during May 2026 when it weakened to 96.96. The currency has faced headwinds over the last ~2 years: expensive equity valuations, India not being in the AI theme, tariff challenges, uncertainty due to the impact of agentic AI on India’s $160 billion software exports, high energy prices due to geopolitical tensions, and tepid net FDI over the past two years.Above all, the narrow interest rate differentials vis-a-vis the US and expectations of INR depreciation have led to greater importer hedging (importer leads) and…

Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground to around $4,100 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal faces new selling pressure after the US vows a response against Iran following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Traders await the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June meeting minutes later on Wednesday.“US Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” Centcom said on Tuesday.The US military added that the strikes…

The Indian unit closed 44 paise stronger at 94.96 per US dollar | Photo Credit: same design The rupee on Tuesday logged its biggest single day gain in over three-weeks, buoyed by central bank intervention and Dollar sales by exporters.The Indian unit closed 44 paise stronger at 94.96 per US dollar against the previous close of 95.40. Intraday, rupee tested a high/ low of 94.94/ 95.37.V Rama Chandra Reddy, Head – Treasury, Karur Vysya Bank, said there was talk in the market of central bank intervention (sale of dollars) through public sector banks.Pressure on the domestic currency eased as crude…

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canada’s merchandise trade surplus increased to $4.2 billion in May from $3.4 billion in April, as exports grew and imports slipped. They highlight weaker energy price support, falling export volumes, and rising industrial machinery imports as signs of shifting demand and improving business investment within an uncertain trade environment.Surplus grows as volumes soften”Canada’s merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in May from $3.4 billion in April (revised upward from $2.7B), as exports rose 0.9% while imports declined 0.2%.””Still, monthly trade data are heavily influenced by commodity…

Analysts expect the currency to trade in the 94.20–95.40 range, with further weakness possible if the dollar strengthens. The rupee weakened over the past week, declining about 30 paise, or 0.32 per cent, to close at 94.97 against the dollar on Tuesday. The fall comes despite supportive factors, such as foreign inflows and lower crude oil prices, highlighting the stronger dollar’s influence on the local currency.According to NSDL data, net FPI inflows stood at about $1.1 billion so far in July, indicating that overseas investors remain interested in Indian assets. Domestic sentiment has also improved. The benchmark Nifty 50 index…