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UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that Malaysia’s inflation remained stable in January, slightly below its own forecast and in line with consensus. Despite solid 4Q25 GDP, price pressures are seen as contained, reducing the urgency for policy changes. UOB therefore maintains its view that Bank Negara Malaysia will hold the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% throughout 2026.Contained inflation supports steady policy stance”Malaysia’s headline inflation remained stable at 1.6% y/y in Jan (Dec: 1.6%), in line with Bloomberg consensus but tad lower than our estimate (1.7%).””In our view, despite the strength in 4Q25 GDP, inflation remains contained, thus providing…
DBS Group Research’s Radhika Rao highlights that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut its policy rate by 25bps to 4.25%, citing weaker-than-expected recovery, softer confidence and delayed government spending. Official growth forecasts for 2026–27 were lowered, inflation projections nudged higher, and DBS still expects one more 25bps cut as BSP keeps the door open to further easing.BSP cuts with cautious forward guidance”The BSP lowered policy rate by 25bps, accompanied by a cautious guidance in light of weaker-than expected recovery, besides softer confidence indices, and delay in government spending on graft-led uncertainty.””Official growth forecasts were cut to 4.6% for 2026 and 5.9%…
The AUD/USD advances for the second straight day, up by 0.36% as the Greenback edges lower as US economic growth takes a toll while inflation accelerates towards the 3% threshold. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7086, poised to end the week with gains of over 0.19%.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/USD remains upward biased after buyers pushed the exchange rate past above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7034. Following that, they cleared 0.7050 and seem poised to challenge the 0.7100 mark.Bullish momentum remains intact, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) aiming higher, after bottoming…
Gold prices rally more than 1% on Friday after economic growth in the US decelerated, while inflation rose past the 3% threshold as depicted by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. XAU/USD trades at $5,065 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,981.Bullion jumps as US growth slows and core PCE tops 3%, stagflation looming?Breaking news revealed that the US Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs, imposed under a law intended for national emergencies. This improved risk appetite, as US equities pared earlier losses and turned positive in the day. In the…
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that Bank Indonesia kept its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and still expects inflation to stay within its 1.5%–3.5% target. However, upside inflation risks could weigh on the Rupiah if policymakers let the economy run hotter. Higher bond yields and overvalued 10‑year bonds add to policy trade-offs for BI as it considers gradual easing.Growth targets held as inflation risks tilt up”BI maintains its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and continues to expect inflation to remain within its 1.5%–3.5% target range this year. However, inflation risks are skewed to the upside if policymakers allow…
The US Dollar (USD) held firm on Friday after the release of top-tier data, but the US Dollar Index (DXY) posted an acceptable weekly gain of almost 1%. The December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 3% YoY, above market forecasts, signalling an uptick in inflation pressures and supporting the USD. Additionally, the US flash Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to 1.4% from the 3% expected, impacting investors’ attraction to the Greenback.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.80 level, struggling to attract buyers after weaker-than-expected GDP. On Monday, the US will release the December Factory…
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Thailand’s economy remains a low‑growth, low‑inflation outlier, even as authorities project modest improvement in 2026 and 2027. Despite some upside risks to near‑term growth, UOB expects 2026 to mark the cyclical trough and continues to forecast a final 25 bps policy rate cut at the upcoming BOT meeting.Low growth and inflation justify further easing”Looking ahead, the authorities project 2026 growth at 1.5–2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) with headline inflation at -0.3 to 0.7%.””While noting the upside risks to the near-term growth outlook, we maintain our medium-term view that 2026 marks the cyclical trough (1.8%),…
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Friday he is deeply disappointed of certain members of the Supreme Court after it ruled that his sweeping tariffs are illegal. In a press conference in Washington DC, Trump has vowed to impose a 10% “global tariff” using an alternative law.Key takeawaysIt is deeply disappointing. Ashamed of certain members of the court. Foreign countries are so happy. Countries won’t be dancing for long. Court has been swayed by foreign interests. There are methods that are even stronger available to me. Other alternatives will be used on tariffs. Could be we take in…
USD/JPY is trading around 154.90 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.13% on the day. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains modest support after inflation data showed a clear moderation in price pressures at the start of the year, while the US Dollar (USD) tumbles after the Supreme Court rules Trump’s national security tariffs unlawful.In Japan, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% YoY in January, down from 2.1% in December, marking the slowest pace since March 2022. The index excluding fresh food eased to 2%, from 2.4% previously, in line with expectations. The so-called core-core measure, which…
The Reserve Bank of India sold a net of $10.02 billion in the foreign exchange market in December, data released on Friday showed, reflecting the central bank’s efforts to support the currency that was the worst emerging market performer last year.The RBI said in its monthly bulletin that it purchased $18.33 billion and sold $28.35 billion in December. In November, the central bank had sold a net of $9.7 billion in the market.The Indian rupee fell to its then-record low of 91.0750 on December 16, pressured by worries over a trade stalemate with the U.S. and persistent foreign outflows.The currency…