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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy decision on Wednesday at 10:00 AM IST (04:30 GMT), another meeting coming at a time when uncertainty remains high over the duration and economic fallout of the ongoing Middle East conflict.RBI seen on hold as inflation remains within target bandAnalysts at Commerzbank expect the Reserve Bank of India to maintain its current policy stance, noting that the RBI is “expected to leave the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 5.25% at its next meeting on 5 August.” While they acknowledge that “inflation risks remain tilted to the…

The local currency continued to benefit from positive foreign inflows, a softer dollar and lower crude oil prices The rupee appreciated about 0.5 per cent, or 48 paise, over the past week to close at 95.38 against the dollar on Tuesday. The local currency continued to benefit from positive foreign inflows, a softer dollar and lower crude oil prices. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent measures have also lent support. Announced during the previous monetary policy, the steps include incentives for overseas dollar deposits and easier access to government securities for foreign investors. These measures have helped attract capital…

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil is falling sharply on Tuesday, trading around $75.70 per barrel at the time of writing, down 3.91% on the day and at its lowest level in a week. Oil prices remain under pressure after a series of statements raised hopes of a de-escalation in tensions between the United States (US) and Iran, potentially leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that talks with Iran are ongoing and that a deal could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday to reopen the…

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes Copper is surging as tighter availability meets uncertainty over United States (US) tariffs, with shipments to the United States draining inventories elsewhere and constrained mine output leaving the market exposed to squeezes. Yu highlights a two‑month high near $14,000/ton in London, steep LME backwardation signaling short‑term scarcity, and year‑to‑date gains driven by trade policy and energy transition themes.Tariffs collide with scarce metal”Copper is surging as tighter availability collides with uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.””Copper markets were in focus as the metal climbed to a two-month high of almost $14,000/ton in London, with traders watching swelling U.S. inventories…

The rupee ended nearly unchanged on Tuesday as divergent impulses ranging from portfolio inflows and importer hedging demand to caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision kept the currency in a narrow band.The rupee closed at 95.3775 per dollar, little changed from its close of ‌95.3375 in ⁠the previous ⁠session.Traders pointed to foreign banks’ dollar sales – likely related to inflows for equity fundraises – ​alongside a pick-up in hedging activity from local oil companies and gold importers.Meanwhile, an ​improvement in banking system rupee liquidity helped cool dollar-rupee forward premiums, with both near and far tenor…

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes Turkey’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowdown to 31.7% year-on-year masks still-strong underlying price momentum, with smoothed headline and core inflation above 2% month-on-month. He highlights skepticism over Istanbul CPI revisions, continued reliance on FX conversion limits and support schemes, and concludes that July data and policy changes offer no clear relief for the Turkish Lira.High CPI and soft controls persist”Turkey’s latest CPI data showed headline inflation slowing to 31.7%y/y in July from 32.1%y/y in June, with prices up by 1.78%m/m. Core measures also appeared to move in a benign direction in year-on-year terms. But these…

The rupee opened on a flat note and gained 3 paise to 95.34 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, as support from the broad-based weakness in the US Dollar Index amid improving global risk sentiment was negated by dollar demand from importers.Forex traders said lower oil prices and a softer US dollar outweighed importer demand for dollars, with market participants now turning their attention to the upcoming RBI MPC decision and key US economic data later this week for further direction.At the interbank foreign exchange market the rupee opened at 95.35, then touched 95.34, registering a gain…

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 110.70, snapping the six-day losing streak, during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited due to the coordinated intervention between the United States (US) and Japan, which could provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). “The view that FX intervention cannot have a lasting impact and merely alters short-term market flows seems right in many cases. However, depending on the circumstances and broader context, intervention can exert a significant influence on the market and trigger an inflection,”…

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing whether the US central bank should hold fewer policy meetings each year, according to the New York Times, citing four people familiar with the matter.Bloomberg later reported that Warsh floated a schedule of six rate-setting meetings a year, plus two additional meetings focused on broader economic issues.The eight regular FOMC meetings a year to set interest rates have been standard since the 1980s, and next year’s tentative meeting dates have already been posted on the Fed’s website. Any reduction would mark a major change to a monetary policy framework that has…

The Japanese yen held gains above recent 40-year lows on Monday after Japan and the United States launched a rare joint yen-buying intervention and vowed to take further action if needed to shore up the currency. The intervention on Friday underscored both countries’ resolve to prevent a selloff in the yen and Japanese government bonds from causing global spillovers, such as adding upward pressure on already rising U.S. Treasury yields, analysts said. The joint intervention, announced by Japan’s finance ministry and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, ‌was the first since 2011’s coordinated ⁠action to weaken ⁠the yen following a devastating…