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The AUD/JPY cross posts modest gains around 113.00 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers a rate hike and keeps a hawkish tone.The RBA raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% at its March policy meeting on Tuesday. This follows a similar hike in February, marking the first back-to-back increases since mid-2023. During the press conference, Governor Michele Bullock stated that prices remained too high and the board was worried about second-round effects from higher energy costs,…
One of the most widely used strategies in the $9.5 trillion-per-day currency market is getting a boost from the surge in oil prices that’s roiling other global assets. The carry trade – borrowing where interest rates are low and investing where they are high – is posting its best returns in three years in some cases. Rising oil prices triggered by the Iran war are helping propel the approach, even as the conflict whipsaws stocks and bonds, wiping out Treasuries’ gains for 2026. “The main reason the foreign-exchange carry trade has been holding up so well is because of commodities,”…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $95.00 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price climbs amid intensifying Middle East conflict and severe supply disruptions. Traders brace for the release of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, which will be published later on Wednesday. Iran carried out attacks on production facilities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq on Tuesday. The Guardian said this is the first time since the start of the war with the US and Israel that Iran has successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities rather than just refineries,…
NZD/USD trades around 0.5860 on Tuesday, posting a slight daily decline after rebounding from intraday lows. The move remains limited but reflects cautious market sentiment as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady and multiple risk factors dominate the macro backdrop.The US Dollar finds some support amid risk aversion linked to the escalation of the Middle East war, now in its third week. Rising Crude Oil prices are fueling concerns about renewed inflationary pressures, which could complicate the outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed). In this context, markets widely expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday within the…
Commerzbank’s FX & Commodity Analyst Volkmar Baur reports that Chinese Aluminium production has risen nearly 3% year-on-year and is running above the government’s annualized cap, supported by higher Aluminium prices and redirected Alumina flows as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The bank warns that if Beijing does not raise the cap, smelters will eventually need to scale back output later in the year.High prices and alumina surplus drive output”It is expected that Chinese production figures will remain above the 3.75 million-ton threshold in the coming months as well. As long as the Iran conflict persists and renders the Strait…
The rupee declined 12 paise to settle at an all-time low of 92.40 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, pressured by rising crude oil prices and sustained outflow of foreign funds amid the West Asia crisis.A positive trend in domestic equity markets also helped the domestic currency at the lower level, even as investors remained watchful of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, forex traders said.At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 92.35 and hit the lowest intra-day level of 92.47 against the greenback. The unit finally ended at a new lifetime low of 92.40…
Rabobank Strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% at the March 18 meeting and through year-end, despite elevated inflation and weaker activity. The war in Iran and higher Oil prices are seen adding inflationary pressure that monetary policy cannot offset, while markets tentatively price in a possible hike.BoC seen on prolonged policy pause”We expect the Bank of Canada to maintain the overnight policy rate at 2.25% at the March 18 decision. This is the unanimous view amongst Bloomberg surveyed analysts, including ourselves, and is fully priced in by…
Indian rupee options trading has surged since the Iran war began, reflecting heightened speculative and hedging activity, with flows skewed toward short-term bets on rupee weakness – signalling the Asian currency will stay under pressure.The surge in activity and the tilt toward short-term bearish bets on the rupee underscore how the Iran war-drivenjump in crude has jolted markets and reshaped positioning in the currency market.In the first two weeks of March, the notional value of dollar-rupee options traded in the U.S. was about $18.5 billion, nearing the roughly $24-$25 billion seen in each of the previous three months, per data…
The rupee lost 14 paise and traded at 92.42 against the US dollar in early deals on Tuesday, as it failed to resist pressure from rising crude oil prices and the incessant withdrawal of foreign funds amid the heightened West Asia crisis. Subdued domestic equity markets and elevated American currency also weighed on the local unit even as investors moved cautiously, awaiting the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve, according to forex traders. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 92.35 and fell further to trade at 92.42 against the US dollar, registering a 14-paise…
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to hold a press conference at 4.30 GMT, following the central bank’s decision to lift the benchmark interest rate to 4.10% from 3.85% on Tuesday.Bullock will take questions from the media as part of a new reporting format for the central bank that started a year ago. Economic Indicator RBA Press Conference Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) economic policy decision, the Governor delivers a press conference explaining the monetary policy decision. The usual format is a roughly one-hour presser starting with prepared remarks and then opening to questions…