Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to near $4,735, snapping the seven-day losing streak during the Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as the ongoing US-Iran conflict spikes demand for safe-haven assets. Traders will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed to show “ZERO restraint” if the country’s energy infrastructure were hit again, per Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud warned that the kingdom’s restraint isn’t “unlimited” and added it could take military action. Rising geopolitical risks could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold in the near term.
On the other hand, soaring crude oil and energy prices, driven by the escalating US-Israeli war with Iran, reignite inflation fears. This, in turn, might delay rate cuts and make non-yielding gold less attractive.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and expressed concern about the impact of rising oil prices on inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the possibility of a rate hike has come up in policy committee discussions. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Traders could sell liquid assets like yellow metal to cover margin calls and raise cash during the broader market volatility. “Global markets have seen broad selloffs as investors search for the quickest assets to sell, perhaps we are now seeing the next leg of this phase where the perceived safe haven assets are sold to fund purchases of those that may have overacted to the current situation,” said Paul Surguy, managing director and head of investment management and proposition at Kingswood Group.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
