For a number of hours leading to the softer than expected US July labour report, USD/JPY was back to trading above the 150.00 level for the first time since early April, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley reports.
Fed dovish hopes resurface on weaker labor report
“The outcome of this week’s Fed and BoJ policy meetings contributed to the move with the Fed being widely interpreted as less dovish than expected and the BoJ as less hawkish. The US jobs report has re-charged Fed easing hopes.”
“We expect that USD/JPY can extend today’s move lower on a 3-month view, but that assumes that the market maintains the expectation that BoJ rates will be hiked around the turn of the year. To a large degree that depends on how the Japanese economy fares in a post-Trump tariff world.”
“Despite its robust tone in July, the USD has today proven that it is susceptible to renewed weakness on speculation that the Fed will adopt a dovish policy bias going forward. It is Rabobank’s view that the Fed may cut rates four times next year in addition to a move next month.”
