The US Dollar keeps heading south against a firmer Swiss Franc amid the risk-off market mood. The pair has breached the 0.7900 level on Friday to hit one-month lows near 0.7870, on track to a 1.15% weekly sell-off.
The Greenback is suffering by a combination of investors’ concerns about the consequences pf the escalating trade tensions between IS and China, a protracted US government shutdown, and growing expectations that the Fed might have to accelerate its easing cycle over the coming months.
On Thursday, comments by Fed governor Christopher Waller and Stephen Mran pointed in that direction, after the Fed’s Beige Book warned of a slight decline in consumer spending and a stalled labour market as businesses grapple with economic uncertainty and higher costs due to trade tariffs.
Risk aversion is underpinning the Swiss Franc’s rally, despite the downbeat Swiss macroeconomic data seen this week. Producer prices contracted for the fifth consecutive month in September, and, on Thursday, the SECO Economic Forecasts anticipated a below-average 1.3% GDP growth in 2025, weighed by a significant slowdown in the second half of the year.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
