UK economic growth surprised on the upside in November, with real GDP rising 0.3% month-on-month, led by gains in services and manufacturing despite continued weakness in construction, BBH FX analysts report.
BOE rate cuts priced in as policy room remains
“UK economic growth overshot expectations in November. Real GDP rose 0.3% m/m (consensus: 0.1%) vs. -0.1% in October, driven by services and production. Services output increased 0.3% m/m vs. -0.3% in October while production output increased 1.1% m/m vs. 1.3% in October on a solid pick-up in manufacturing activity. The construction sector remains a drag on the economy falling -1.3% m/m following a decline of -1.2% in October.”
“Leading indicators point to soggy UK economic activity with real GDP growth tracking the Bank of England’s (BOE) Q4 projection of 0.3% q/q. As such, the BOE has room to ease policy further, which remains a drag for GBP. The UK swaps curve fully price-in a total of 50bps of BOE rate cuts to 3.25% over the next twelve months.”
