Like a thief in the night, Silver prices broke through $35/oz. Last time Silver broke this range, it took roughly 6 weeks to trade $50/oz, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
No guarantees in Silver rally as ETF flows near extremes
“We highlighted this breakout was 1) related to futures-driven flows, 2) which transacted across several metals simultaneously, and 3) was traded over the Asia session but appears unrelated to the largest Chinese traders in SHFE Silver. There’s nothing wrong with a good old-fashioned futures-led breakout, but the psychologically-relevant break must attract subsequent inflows for momentum to persist.”
“Chinese trader positioning remained cautious, only slightly adding to their books in the overnight session. And, while global ETF holdings of Silver rose notably over the last session, clocking in at their 98th percentile, large inflows have not historically exhibited momentum over the following week (with the next 5d following a large inflow averaging at 52nd percentile).”
“London Silver markets are increasingly only offering an illusion of liquidity, suggesting continued ETF inflows could lead to a mini-squeeze, but explicit bullion exemptions from tariffs have deferred our expectations for the Silversqueeze you can buy into. This break offers no guarantees: be like water.”
