UOB’s Quek Ser Leang reports AUD/USD rebounded sharply from 0.6867 to 0.6930, with the move seen as stretched and intraday trade expected between 0.6890 and 0.6930, below 0.6935. Leang has shifted to a neutral 1–3 week view, projecting a 0.6870–0.6980 range, though its 1–3 month outlook remains negative toward 0.6707 if 0.6835 breaks.
Australian Dollar consolidates after sharp rebound
“24-HOUR VIEW: When AUD was at 0.6885 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted the following: “While the slight increase in downward momentum tilts the bias toward the downside today, any decline is likely to be contained within a 0.6865/0.6900 range. AUD is unlikely to break clearly below 0.6865.” Our downside call was not wrong, as AUD dipped to a low of 0.6867, but we did not expect the subsequent strong rebound that reached a high of 0.6930. The rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, and instead of continuing to rebound, AUD is more likely to trade at these higher levels, expected to be between 0.6890 and 0.6930. This time around, AUD is unlikely to break clearly above 0.6935.”
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on AUD in the middle of last month (as annotated in the chart below). In our latest narrative from Monday (29 Jun, spot at 0.6895), we noted that “downward momentum is starting to ease.” We added, “a break above 0.6940 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that 0.6835 is out of reach.” Yesterday, AUD dropped to 0.6867 before rebounding strongly to a high of 0.6930. Although our ‘strong resistance’ has not been breached yet, downward momentum has faded. We are neutral on AUD now, and we expect it to trade between 0.6870 and 0.6980 for the time being.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
