Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses around $4,155 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland. However, hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might cap the upside for the precious metals in the near term.
US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, raising concerns about progress for peace talks between Washington and Tehran. Iranian negotiators suspended high-stakes talks with the US in Switzerland in response to a flurry of verbal threats issued by Trump to strike Iran again, but people familiar said they were continuing.
“Gold’s rally on the back of the U.S.-Iran peace deal proved short-lived. The resurgent dollar, powered by the Fed’s newly hawkish tone under Kevin Warsh, has stolen the spotlight,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Goldman Sachs project gold prices to rise to $4,900 per ounce by December, lower than its earlier forecast of $5,400, as the bank doesn’t expect the US rate cut this year anymore.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
