The Aussie Dollar is poised to end the week on a positive note versus the US Dollar, up 0.21% as improved risk appetite keeps AUD/USD trading near 0.7124, closing near Friday’s highs.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
After breaching the June 15 high of 0.7088, which turned support once cleared, the AUD/USD broke above 0.7100 and hit a two-day high of 0.7136 before settling at around 0.7120.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the index is bearish but about to turn bullish. This means buyers expect further upside, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates at the September 29 meeting.
If the AUD/USD extends its gains above the current week’s high of 0.7168, a move to 0.7200 is on the cards. On further strength, the next stop will be the September 9 daily high of 0.7237, followed by the May 6 cycle high of 0.7277.
On the other hand, if AUD/USD falls beneath the 50-day SMA of 0.7084, the next stop will be the 100-day SMA at 0.7078. Beneath is the September 16 swing low of 0.7075, ahead of challenging the 200-day SMA at 0.7012.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
