The rupee traded at a record intraday low of 95.80/$ and later closed at 95.70/$. It had previously closed at 95.62/$. It opened at 95.61/$ and traded in the range of 95.80/$ and 95.51/$ on Wednesday. The rupee has weakened 2.7% in FY27 so far.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely sold dollars intermittently at 95.75/$ and 95.65/$ on Wednesday to arrest further decline, traders said. They expect the rupee to trade between 95.25/$ and 96/$ on Thursday.
“The range on Wednesday was limited but the dollar demand did not go away the entire day. Risk-off sentiment pushed the rupee to new lows and there are expectations of additional measures from RBI to support the rupee,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors.
Brent crude oil prices were still trading much above the $100 per barrel mark – at $107.58 – late Wednesday India time.
“This time, if RBI announces something, market participants won’t be caught as off guard as they were when measures on net open positions were announced,” a trader at a private sector bank said. The rupee, which remains highly sensitive to movements in crude oil prices, is unlikely to stabilise unless oil falls back below the $100 per barrel mark, traders said.
“A collapse in oil prices or a resumption in portfolio flows are prerequisites for a durable turnaround in the rupee’s bearish run,” Radhika Rao, senior economist, DBS Bank, said in a note.
