Global markets were under strain after hawkish Federal Reserve commentary dampened expectations of a U.S. rate cut next month. India’s benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 though, bucked the trend with a 0.2% rise compared to the near 2% drop in MSCI’s gauge of Asian shares outside Japan. The rupee hovered in touching distance of its all time low at 88.80 through the day’s session but averted steeper losses on account of the central bank’s market intervention.
The currency has held on the stronger side of that level since Sept. 30, supported by stepped-up RBI defence that has also kept volatility expectations contained.
Asian currencies were trading mixed and the dollar index was steady at 99.2. While the U.S. government shutdown has concluded, investors continue to fret over gaps in economic data that could delay or even derail future policy easing. Money markets are currently pricing in a near 49% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, down from above 60% earlier in the week.
“The bar for a December cut has risen when hearing Fed officials. While the move in the dollar fits our bearish view, it feels a bit premature and at risk of rapid reversal should the initial batch of US data prove not as bad as seemingly priced in,” ING said in a note.
