Rupee touched the psychologically crucial 92 to the US Dollar mark in intraday trading so far on Thursday amid a strong greenback and persistent outflows due to FPI selling in the Indian equity markets.
Opening about 17 paise weaker at 91.95 per USD against previous close of 91.7825, the Indian currency hit saw a high/low of 91.9150/92.0000. RBI likely intervened in the market to stem the Rupee from depreciating beyond the 92 level.
Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors, observed that the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected pause overnight, keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% even as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Washington’s commitment to a strong-dollar policy and clarified that the U.S. is not intervening in currency markets to influence the yen. The led to a modest recover in the Dollar against global currencies.
“A firmer dollar index usually adds pressure on emerging-market currencies, including the rupee.
Despite mixed global cues, the Rupee remains among the weakest-performing Asian currencies this month, down nearly 2%.
“Persistent foreign portfolio investor outflows continue to weigh on sentiment, with equity outflows already touching $4.5 billion in January.
“This steady capital drain has kept dollar demand elevated and underscores a key challenge for the rupee — price action remains increasingly driven by flows rather than fundamentals. Adding to the pressure, oil prices have risen more than 4% this week, extending gains for a third consecutive session to levels last seen in late September,” Pabari said.
Pabari assessed that with USD/INR hovering near 92.00 in the NDF (non-deliverable forward) market, this level remains a key near-term pivot.
A sustained move above it could open the door toward 92.20–92.50, but RBI support and a broadly softer dollar backdrop may cap upside and gradually pull the pair back toward 91.00–91.20, he added.
Mecklai Financial Services Ltd (MFSL) noted that the global markets remained cautious but stable as the US dollar index held above 96, recovering from a four-year low after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent firmly reiterated America’s “strong dollar policy”, dismissing speculation of any US intervention against the yen. This helped counter earlier remarks by President Trump indicating tolerance for a weaker dollar.
The forex advisory firm noted that the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its January meeting, signalling a clear rate-cut pause in early 2026, with Chair Powell highlighting solid economic growth, stabilizing unemployment and still-elevated inflation. Markets now expect the first rate cut only in the second half of 2026, despite political chatter around Fed leadership.
“On the India front, sentiment improved after India and the EU finalized a long-pending trade deal, with India agreeing to cut import duties on premium European cars from 70–110% to as low as 30% initially, and 10% over time for higher-priced models.
“The USD/INR pair is currently trading at 92 in NDF market and remains well above the 20-day and 100-day averages, keeping the bullish bias intact. Momentum is strong with the relative strength index (RSI) around 75, though slightly stretched. Support is seen near 91.45–91.20, while the next hurdle on the upside is seen near 92.50–93.00,” MFSL said.
Published on January 29, 2026
