The failure of the US-Iran truce deal had its impact on the Rupee, which opened about 57 paise weaker against the US dollar on Monday.
The Indian currency weakened amid a spike in global crude oil prices with no end in sight to the blockade of the arterial Strait of Hormuz, strengthening of the US dollar and continued FPI outflows from the Indian equities market.
The Rupee opened at 93.30 per USD against the previous close of 92.73. It is currently trading at 93.3850.
Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors, observed that a silent force — Banks unwinding their dollar positions to comply with the RBI’s Net Open Position (NOP) cap – was at play, that held up the Rupee. This created a steady supply of dollars, a cushion that quietly supported the rupee.
“But now? The deadline is over. The cushion is gone. Just as one support faded, another risk has emerged and this one comes from far beyond domestic borders. US President Donald Trump has escalated tensions by announcing a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed negotiations with Iran. This narrow stretch isn’t just any waterway, it carries nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply,” he said.
Pabari assessed that a $10 rise in crude can widen the trade deficit by $13–15 billion annually. This pressure flows into the current account, stretches fiscal balances through subsidies or tax cuts, and ultimately weighs on the rupee.
Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst, Choice Broking, said the Indian rupee opened 0.6 per cent lower, tracking weakness across emerging market currencies as the US dollar strengthened globally.
She noted that the decline in the rupee came after the Dollar Index and US 10-year Treasury yields moved higher, reflecting increased investor preference for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
“Market sentiment turned cautious after the US-Iran talks in Pakistan failed to yield any agreement, with Washington accusing Iran of not doing enough to curb its nuclear ambitions. Adding to tensions, US President Donald Trump warned that any country supplying military equipment to Iran could face tariffs of up to 50 per cent on all exports to the US,” More said.
The renewed geopolitical concerns boosted demand for the dollar, putting additional pressure on the domestic currency at the opening bell, she added.
Published on April 13, 2026
