The euro and sterling were steady against the dollar after falling 0.5% and 0.3% on Thursday, respectively, while the Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 147.395 following stronger-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter.
Overnight, markets had to contend with U.S. producer prices showing the quickest rise in three years in July amid a surge in the costs of goods and services, pointing to a broad pick up in inflationary pressures which analysts say could pose a dilemma for the Fed.
The hot measure of producer price inflation followed a comforting consumer inflation outcome earlier in the week which had boosted expectations of policy easing in the world’s largest economy and helped lift risk assets across the board.
Odds of a 25-basis-point cut by the U.S. central bank retreated slightly after the producer price figures, per CME’s FedWatch tool.
A combination of supportive data and remarks from the U.S. Treasury Secretary had also given rise to the possibility of an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut in September but those expectations were wiped out entirely after Thursday’s data. The wholesale U.S. inflation data “warranted a move in front-end rates and firmer dollar … but a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting remains the default setting,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was steady in early Asia trading at 3.7262% after rising by as much as 5 basis points on Thursday. On the far end of the curve, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.2849% after rising by a similar degree overnight. “The combination of elevated inflation and weak growth in jobs is a conundrum for the Fed,” Joseph Carpuso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note to clients.
Carpuso expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to address that dilemma at his upcoming speech next week at the Kansas City Fed’s annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole.
The remarks will be delivered amid the backdrop of data showing some impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation at a time when the job market is also slowing.
“We’re all waiting for something to give in terms of volatility,” said Alex Hill, managing director at Electus Financial Ltd in Auckland.
Hill expects “a slow deterioration in the U.S. data,” citing weakening underlying trends in the labour market and the pickup in inflation. A key factor to watch for the greenback would be how the bond market digests increased amounts of government debt issuance in September and October, he said.
More immediately, the focus will also be on a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin scheduled for Friday in Alaska.
Trump said on Thursday that he believes Putin is ready to end his war in Ukraine, but peace would likely require at least a second meeting involving Ukraine’s leader.
Bitcoin and ether nudged up after dropping about 4% each on Thursday. Bitcoin had at one point touched a record high on Thursday on shifting Fed rate-cut expectations.
