The dollar erased gains after President Donald Trump said Iran called Monday morning and wants a deal. The remarks follow Trump’s order over the weekend to block the Strait of Hormuz following the deadlock in US-Iran peace talks that pushed oil prices higher.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 per cent. Earlier in the session the gauge was up as much as 0.5 per cent. The Japanese yen was the only among its peers in the Group of 10 against the greenback to weaken.
“I think we have established the top and bottom for the dollar and G-10 currencies,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, a strategist at Pioneer Investments. “I think we will trade in this range as long as uncertainty remains high.”
Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982, said while he thinks both sides want “to stop the conflict, I very much doubt Iran will meet US demands as they currently stand.”
Shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz remain in focus as the lack of an agreement threatens to deepen a global energy shock. Oil prices are hovering near $100 a barrel.
“While a US naval blockade will push oil higher, that is a better outcome for the global economy than a renewed assault on energy infrastructure in the region,” said strategists at ING Bank, including Chris Turner and Frantisek Taborsky. “We doubt the dollar needs to rally too much further.”
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Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live
“While a dash for liquidity and its terms-of-trade advantage have fueled a haven bid for the greenback since the Iran war started, the drag from the negative oil impulse will soon enough start to reassert itself to further chip away at the dollar rally.”
Through the war that began on Feb. 28, speculative foreign-exchange traders have shifted to long dollar positioning. In the week of April 7, just before the US-Israel alliance and Iran announced a ceasefire, these traders added to long dollar bets, turning the most positive on the greenback in 14 months, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
“Dollar positioning is not as short or crowded as it was at the start of the conflict,” said Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities.
According to a Bank of America survey of fund managers, conducted April 3 through April 9, investors have covered short bets on the dollar but are reluctant to go long as support from the Iran war will be temporary and the Federal Reserve is expected to avoid interest-rate hikes.
“While the general FX moves have been subdued we should not assume that will continue and the longer the energy supply crunch drags on, the greater the economic impact will be,” wrote MUFG analysts Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart in a note. “Renewed US dollar appreciation remains the risk this week if conditions worsen further.”
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Published on April 14, 2026
