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MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the US Dollar’s initial weakness after President Trump extended the pause in attacks on Iran’s energy assets has been short-lived, with DXY only slightly lower. He argues that if risk-off intensifies, especially with Brent crude Oil in a higher range and equities falling, the Dollar should strengthen further in the short term despite a poor longer-term backdrop.Dollar seen benefiting from risk-off”The price of Brent crude oil dropped sharply after the announcement yesterday by President Trump that he was extending the pause in attacks on Iran’s energy assets until 8pm EST on 6th April but the…
The Indian rupee plunged to a record low on Friday, sliding past the 94-per-dollar mark, with mounting worries over the energy crisis sparked by the Middle East war putting the currency on track for its worst fiscal-year drop in more than a decade.The rupee declined 0.9% to end at 94.8125 after hitting an all-time low of 94.84 per dollar. The Asian currency has fallen about 4% since the Iran war began at February end, and is down 11% this fiscal year.India’s fiscal year runs from April to March.The last comparable drop was in 2011-12, when a global risk-off due to…
DBS analysts Philip Wee and Chang Wei Liang argue that the Dollar’s (USD) broader downtrend has been interrupted by war-related haven demand and elevated Oil prices. They highlight structural risks from questions over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence and US fiscal sustainability, suggesting US financial hegemony is increasingly being reassessed by global investors.War shock props up Dollar temporarily”A USD mutiny is delayed due to elevated oil prices, but questions over Fed independence and US fiscal sustainability pose structural risks for the USD.””The USD is experiencing a temporary geopolitical floor amid Operation Fury.””Nonetheless, the unilateral nature of the US-Israel strikes has created…
Gold (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day’s fall to the $4,350 area. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower after US President Donald Trump announced that he will delay strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and extended the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until April 6. This turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the commodity. Any meaningful appreciation, however, seems elusive amid expectations of higher interest rates globally, which tends to undermine demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.Investors now seem convinced that…
USD/JPY edged up about 0.1% on Thursday, trading around 159.70 and holding just below the session high near 159.85. The pair has rallied sharply from the early-March lows close to 152.10, gaining roughly 770 pips in under three weeks. Thursday’s candle is compact and sits near the top of the recent range, with price pressing against the 160.00 round number for the first time since the sell-off began in late January.The ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate the macro backdrop. Brent crude has averaged about $97 per barrel in…
The USD/JPY trades higher near the 159.70 level on Thursday, March 26, maintaining an overall bullish bias as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported while the Japanese Yen (JPY) stays under pressure.United States (US) President Donald Trump stated that the recent spike in Oil prices and the decline in the stock market during the tensions with Iran were not as severe as he had anticipated. During a public appearance with Cabinet members, Trump expressed confidence in the war effort and asserted that any economic damage would eventually be reversed.In response, the USD remains strong, supported by Trump’s comments, safe-haven demand,…
Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke report that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to leave rates unchanged, with markets no longer pricing cuts in the near term after the Iran conflict. They still see scope for two or three 25 bp cuts over 2026, but stresses there is currently no concrete trigger, so today’s decision should have limited impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN).Banxico seen on extended hold”… the Mexican central bank (Banxico) is meeting today. Neither the markets nor analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect an interest rate cut. Although market expectations were around 12 basis points…
UOB economist analysts Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann report that GBP/USD traded softer, closing at 1.3366 after a narrower 1.3359–1.3436 range than expected. They see mild downward pressure intraday, though a move to 1.3320 is unlikely. Over one to three weeks, the outlook remains mixed, with the Pound expected to oscillate between 1.3220 and 1.3480 and medium‑term risk of a drop toward 1.2945–1.3010 on a weekly close below 1.3300.Pound holds in broad range against Dollar”24-HOUR VIEW: GBP appears to be facing mild downward pressure and is likely to trade with a downside bias today. However, any decline is…
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after registering small losses in the previous day, trading around $71.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Non-interest-bearing Silver finds support as easing oil prices, driven by hopes of Middle East de-escalation, reduce inflation concerns and rate hike expectations.The White House said talks remain ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly sending a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan to resolve the conflict. Senior Iranian officials are reviewing the US proposal but have signaled no willingness to engage in talks with Washington. However, Tehran indicated it would reject a US ceasefire offer, instead proposing a five-point…
The Australian Dollar begins Thursday’s session with minuscule gains of 0.04%, after posting losses of 0.68% on Wednesday, courtesy of broad US Dollar strength, despite improved risk appetite. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6950.Aussie pares losses after softer Australian inflation, but broad US Dollar strength keeps upside limitedGeopolitics are driving the financial markets’ narrative, as each new headline keeps investors uneasy amid information about the US-Iran war, shifting the markets’ mood. Growing speculation about the start of US-Iran talks to end the war in the Middle East pushed US equities, the US Dollar and Gold prices…