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BNY’s Bob Savage argues that Eurozone stagflation risks are building as energy pressures rise, with headline CPI pushed higher by fuel while core remains contained. He expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to stay cautious and watch second-round effects, and sees aggressive front-end hike pricing in the Eurozone and United Kingdom (UK) as likely to be pared back in a volatile process.Energy shock, CPI and ECB pricing”The International Energy Agency’s special briefing for EU finance ministers will likely trigger additional national-level support for motorists and industry. Shortages are not as acute as in the emerging world, and most scenarios point…
The central bank’s surprise cap on forex positions gave the battered rupee a brief reprieve on Monday, but bankers and analysts say the steps will hit banks’ trading revenue and that economic risks will erode currency gains.The Reserve Bank of India opened a new front in its fight for currency stability on Friday, asking banks to limit net open rupee positions to $100 million, shifting to an absolute dollar limit from a previous cap of 25 per cent of total capital.The change represents a tightening and comes as the war between Iran and the US and Israel pushes up oil…
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest Asian session slide to the $4,420 area and looks to build on Friday’s strong gains of over 2.50%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to find acceptance above the 100-psychological mark and retreats slightly from the vicinity of the highest level since November 2025, touched earlier this month. This turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the commodity. However, expectations of higher interest rates globally might keep a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the non-yielding yellow metal.Investors now seem convinced that…
Reuters is reporting the latest comments delivered by US President Donald Trump in his interview with the Financial Times (FT).Key quotesThe US could ‘take the oil in Iran’.The US could seize the export hub of Kharg Island,Number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers Iran had permitted through the Strait of Hormuz had now been doubled to 20.Could take Kharg Island ‘very easily’.Iranians have no defense on Kharg Island.Discussions with Tehran are “doing extremely well” and expressed optimism that a deal could be reached “pretty soon.” Indirect talks via emissaries progressing well.A deal could be made ‘fairly quickly’.Separately, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported…
Banks will be forced to unwind their long dollar positions in the domestic forex market following a late-Friday directive from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a move that could push the Rupee up by as much as 100 paise against the US Dollar when markets open on Monday.The RBI’s March 27 direction mandates that authorised dealers keep their Net Open Position–Indian Rupee (NOP-INR) in the onshore deliverable market within $100 million at the end of each business day, effectively curbing large long-dollar bets that have been adding to pressure on the domestic currency.The move comes after the Rupee has…
Currently Prithvi Exchange’s revenue mix includes about 50% from currencies, 30% from sales of cards and 16% from remittances. (Representational image) Prithvi Exchange, a Chennai-based foreign exchange service provider, will soon launch forex cards under its own name.The company, which currently is an authorised reseller of forex cards from banks like ICICI and IndusInd, said that its own cards will be launched by the first quarter of FY27.Speaking to businessline,Pavan Kavad, Managing Director, Prithvi Exchange, said that issuing cards under the company’s own brand name will allow it to control factors like pricing and user experience. “It becomes more economical…
The raging war in West Asia continues to have a deleterious effect on the rupee, which closed at a new all time low on Friday (March 27, 2026). With the rupee depreciating about 4 per cent since the West Asia war began on February 28, 2026, the Reserve Bank of India has asked authorised dealers to ensure that their net open position – Indian Rupee (NOP-INR) – in the onshore deliverable market shall be maintained within $100 million at the end of each business day.The move is probably aimed at reducing large bets against the Indian currency and preventing sharp…
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng highlights that Thailand’s financial markets, particularly the Thai Baht (THB) and equities, are under pressure due to vulnerability to Middle East conflict-related commodity shocks. The report notes that upside inflation risks from the Iran war have likely closed room for further Bank of Thailand (BoT) easing, with markets pricing an unchanged policy rate for at least six months.Baht under pressure as policy constrained”Thailand’s financial markets remain under pressure, with the Thai baht (-5.3%) the worst-performing currency in the ASEAN-6 region month-to-date, while the benchmark equity index also lost ground (-5.8%). The underperformance reflects…
UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, via Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting, notes that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept the RRP (Reverse Repurchase Rate) rate at 4.25% in an off-cycle meeting as supply-driven inflation and Middle East risks intensify. The bank expects a prolonged policy pause, with core inflation and second-round effects guiding decisions and fiscal policy taking a larger role.BSP seen on prolonged policy pause”In view of the fluid situation and uncertainty over the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict, we maintain a cautious stance and continue to expect…
Silver (XAG/USD) price turns positive on Friday after posting back-to-back bearish sessions, as heightened tensions in the Middle East decreased the white metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting traders to turn to the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, buyers emerged, pushing XAG/USD higher and driving it near the $70.00 figure, up 2.70%.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookSilver price seems poised to consolidate further after falling below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains above the spot price as a key resistance level at $73.66.Bears remain in charge, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though the index has been trending upwards towards…