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BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Oil remains a key market barometer as the Iran war disrupts supply, with Brent up sharply and the International Energy Agency warning that the global natural gas market will stay tight for at least two more years. The conflict has removed significant oil and LNG capacity, delaying new LNG expansion and reinforcing a prolonged period of constrained energy markets.Iran conflict and IEA gas projections”Oil remains the barometer, but fears of any U.S./Iran weekend escalation are looked through as the narrative continues to see a deal in the making.””The global natural gas market is expected to…
The rupee extended its losing streak for the fifth day in a row, depreciating 22 paise to close at 94.23 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday due to higher crude oil prices and strengthening American currency, with prospects of West Asia peace talks hanging in the balance.Despite a ceasefire being in place between the United States and Iran, ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz remained uncertain, unsettling the global fuel prices, while the upheaval triggered a massive selling in domestic equity markets and outflow of foreign funds, forex analysts said.President Donald Trump has also ordered the US military…
The Indian rupee declined in all five trading sessions to log its steepest week-on-week loss since September 2022, as worries over the fragility of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and disrupted energy flows sparked a renewed surge in oil prices.The rupee closed at 94.2475 on Friday, down 1.4% on the week.Regulatory measures by the Reserve Bank of India and optimism over an end to hostilities in the Middle East granted the rupee some breathing room last week, but it proved fleeting as oil prices resumed their upward march with hopes of peace talks ebbing and flowing.India’s benchmark equity index, the Nifty 50,…
Dow Jones futures pares its daily losses but remain in the negative territory, declining by 0.13%, trading above 49,400 during the European hours on Friday, ahead of the United States (US) regular opening. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures inch higher 0.13% and 0.62% to near 7,150 and 27,100, respectively.US stock futures traded mixed after US President Donald Trump said Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks. Lebanon is expected to seek a one-month extension in a second round of direct talks in Washington, though Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said that the outcome is…
The rupee’s valuation versus other major currencies calculated on a trade-weighted basis has fallen to its lowest in more than a decade, hit by the Iran war-driven surge in crude oil prices and chunky foreign portfolio outflows.The South Asian currency’s 40-currency real effective exchange rate, which accounts for inflation differentials between different economies, fell to 92.72, the Reserve Bank of India’s latest bulletin released late on Thursday showed.The REER is now hovering well below its long-run average of 98.25, pointing to a deeply undervalued rupee against historical norms.Relatively subdued inflation in India has weighed on the REER in recent months,…
The rupee stayed on a downward track for the fifth straight day, losing 24 paise to 94.25 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, weighed by volatile crude oil prices and an elevated US dollar, with prospects of West Asia peace talks turning hazier.Analysts said that despite a ceasefire in place between the United States and Iran, ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz remained uncertain after the US military on Thursday seized another Iranian oil tanker, intensifying the standoff and unsettling the fuel prices worldwide.President Donald Trump has also ordered the US military to “shoot and kill”…
India’s chief economic adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said the rupee is “fundamentally undervalued” and could offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors. | Photo Credit: VELANKANNI RAJ B India’s rupee is “fundamentally undervalued,” the country’s chief economic adviser said, adding that current levels could draw investors.“For long-term investors, the rupee’s current valuation provides an attractive entry point,” V. Anantha Nageswaran said in an interview Thursday. The rupee has been under pressure this week, with Brent above $100 a barrel. The currency has given up much of the gains fueled by the central bank’s recent measures to curb speculative arbitrage bets…
EUR/JPY inches higher after three days of gains, trading around 186.60 during Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned slightly below the ascending channel, signaling potential for a bearish reversal.However, the EUR/JPY cross holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while facing immediate friction at the nine-day EMA.Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index sits around 58, comfortably above the midline yet below overbought territory, which suggests positive but not overstretched momentum that could favor further upside as long as the EUR/JPY cross…
Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India turned a net buyer of $7.4 billion in February, compared with net sales of $2.4 billion in January, likely aided by a strengthening rupee following the announcement of the India-US trade deal in early February. The real effective exchange rate (REER)-a weighted average of the rupee against a basket of six major currencies-stood at 91.23 in March, down from 92.45 in February. A REER below 100 indicates that the currency is undervalued, supporting export competitiveness. Source
The yuan is on track to overtake the yen as the second-most traded currency against the dollar in the foreign-exchange options market, according to London-based clearing house LCH.The dollar-offshore yuan pair is likely to move to second place behind just the euro-dollar when the Bank for International Settlements releases its next triennial survey of foreign exchange and over-the-counter derivatives markets in 2028, said Andrew Batchelor, head of the clearing house’s unit LCH ForexClear.”Yuan internationalisation is real,” Batchelor said in an interview in Shanghai. “It’s not necessarily about replacing the dollar. It’s about diversifying currency usage. Markets want choice: the ability…