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Commerzbank highlights that BSP raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, signalling the start of a new tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations. Despite a hawkish tone and higher inflation forecasts, the Peso underperforming regional peers since the Iran war as the Philippines remains highly exposed to Middle East energy prices.Rate hike fails to lift weak currency”The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised the target reverse repo rate by 25bp to 4.50%. The market consensus was split 50-50 on a rate hike in a Bloomberg poll. It was BSP’s first rate hike since September 2023. The decision was aimed…

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe a technical rebound in USD/TWD driven by broader US Dollar (USD) strength and risk aversion linked to the US‑Iran ceasefire stalemate. While near-term upside risks persist, they still prefer fading rallies, citing strong foreign inflows into Taiwanese equities, high correlation with the tech cycle, and robust AI-led export momentum as supportive for the Taiwan Dollar (TWD).Short-term squeeze versus tech support”Technical rebound fade. USDTWD rebounded, tracking the broad uptick in USD as risk sentiment was restraint.””The squeeze higher in USDTWD was consistent with our technical caution for falling wedge – typically associated…

DBS Group Research economist Samuel Tse analyses recent steepening in Chinese Yuan (CNY) rates, linking it to a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran and stronger-than-expected Q1 growth in China. He highlights resilient Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), firm industrial and external activity, robust onshore bond demand and continued offshore inflows, arguing this backdrop supports a stable front end and an accommodative but measured People’s Bank of China (PBoC) stance.Steepening curve on solid macro backdrop”The CNY curve has steepened in the past week, driven by a ceasefire between the US and Iran and a stronger-than-expected macro starting point in…

USD/CHF dropped on Friday but finished the week with gains of over 0.35%, trading at 0.7841 as market participants grew confident that US-Iran talks could resume over the weekend to resolve the conflict.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical OutlookFrom a technical perspective, USD/CHF appears poised to remain in a consolidation within the 0.7800-0.7900 range. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests further downside, as the index is bearish and pointing lower.Price action suggests the uptrend might be pausing after hitting a nine-day high of 0.7877, but closing near the 50-day SMA at 0.7840 and failing to clear key resistance…

Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that USD/IDR has broken to fresh highs, overshooting earlier expectations for near-term stabilization. The move is attributed more to domestic confidence and fiscal uncertainty than broad US Dollar (USD) strength. While upside risks have increased, MUFG also flags growing signs of Rupiah undervaluation and potential constraints from Bank Indonesia’s policy response.Domestic confidence shock drives USD/IDR”USD/IDR has reached fresh all-time highs around 17,300 level. This overshoots our prior near-term stabilisation view around 17,000. This move appears less about global USD strength and more about a domestic confidence shock, with markets likely reacting to heightened fiscal uncertainty.””In…

Silver (XAG/USD) price edges up over 0.50% during Friday’s session, after bouncing off a daily low of $73.95. Speculation about a resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is cheered by investors, which pushed US equities higher in tandem with the precious metals segment. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $75.83,XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlookTechnically, Silver is poised to consolidate within the 20- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), both at $75.64. Worth noting that since bottoming at around $61.02 on March 23, the white metal continued to record higher lows, an indication that the uptrend…

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the central bank of Philippines Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 25bp hike to 4.5% and guidance that further increases are possible as inflation forecasts are revised higher and second-round effects emerge. While this reduces the risk of BSP falling behind the curve and is relatively supportive for Philippine Peso (PHP), the Peso remains vulnerable to imported energy shocks and uncertain US‑Iran ceasefire dynamics.Higher rates versus energy vulnerability”More hikes not ruled out. BSP hiked policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% at its last MPC meeting (23 Apr). The Board now sees a…

TD Securities strategists, including Andrew Kelvin and colleagues, expect the Bank of Canada to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through the April meeting and likely for the rest of 2026. They see the Bank striking a more balanced but still cautious tone, emphasizing two-sided growth risks from higher Oil prices and USMCA renegotiation while looking through near-term inflation spikes.BoC seen on extended hold with neutral tone”We look for the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% as the policy statement strikes another cautious tone. Higher energy prices will drive a sharp upgrade to the Bank’s inflation forecast in…

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% at the April meeting, maintaining its vigilant stance. Koopman notes weaker domestic demand, already restrictive policy and lower-than-expected energy prices, which may slightly reduce near-term inflation forecasts, while still anticipating one additional rate hike rather than a full renewed hiking cycle.BoE seen on hold with cautious bias”With markets having stabilised in recent weeks, we expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at the April meeting and to reiterate the vigilant stance set out in March.””Even…

EUR/GBP trades in a tight range on Friday, fluctuating between minor gains and losses as markets show a muted reaction to the latest economic data, with traders remaining focused on geopolitical developments surrounding the US and Iran. At the time of writing, the cross is hovering around 0.8671, broadly flat on the day and on track for a third consecutive weekly decline.The British Pound is finding support from stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data, while the Euro remains under pressure after Germany’s latest IFO Business Climate Index came in weaker across the board, highlighting deteriorating business sentiment, as rising energy prices and…