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DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao says the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance but a clearly hawkish tone, focused on inflation and currency stability. She highlights strong FY26 growth at 7.7% real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but warns that higher Oil prices, El-Nino risks and global conflict could pressure FY27 growth and inflation.RBI pause, growth strong but vulnerable”The RBI monetary policy committee (MPC) left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%, along our expectations, while the stance was maintained at neutral. Policy guidance was cautious, as the Governor highlighted tightening global…
India High Resolution Question Mark Concept istockphoto for BL | Photo Credit: XtockImages The rupee on Monday almost ceded all the gains it made in the last trading session, recording its biggest single day fall in a month in the process.The Indian currency was weighed down by high crude oil prices amid the continuing West Asia conflict, dollar gaining strength and expectation of the US Fed tightening monetary policy in the coming months.The rupee closed at 95.71 per US dollar, down 0.81 per cent, against the previous close of 94.94.The Indian currency got a booster shot last Friday as the…
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers some ground on Monday after sliding to its lowest level since March, as traders assess fresh geopolitical developments in the Middle East. However, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations continue to cap the upside.At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,330 after hitting an intraday low of $4,268, a level last seen on March 23.Iran and Israel exchanged fire over the weekend for the first time since the ceasefire announced in April. The renewed hostilities have dimmed hopes for a near-term peace deal in the Middle East.US President Donald Trump tried to calm the situation, posting…
The Indian rupee reversed nearly all of the previous session’s rally on Monday, pressured by rising oil prices, fragile risk appetite and patchy corporate flows.A raft of measures aimed at supporting the currency battered by the impact of the months-long Iran war had boosted the rupee to its best day in two months on Friday.However, rising crude and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike have offset their positive impact.The rupee ended down 0.8% in its sharpest fall in four weeks to settle at 95.7075 per dollar.Still, analysts say the measures to attract dollars would lead to $30 billion…
Crude prices have jumped by more than $4 on Monday, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel trading at $92.52 at the time of writing, as tensions between Israel and Iran flare, adding new strains to an already fragile ceasefire in the area.Iran-backed Houthi militias from Yemen confirmed earlier on Monday that they targeted Israel and announced a ban on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea. These comments follow a new set of reciprocal attacks between Israel and Iran, which have raised concerns about the resumption of an all-out war in the region.A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry…
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the $4,350-$4,355 area and touches its lowest level since March 23 on the first day of a new week. Renewed hostilities in the Gulf push Crude Oil prices higher, fanning inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the non-yielding bullion. The commodity now seems to have found acceptance below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remains vulnerable to decline further, with bears awaiting acceptance below the $4,300 mark before placing…
Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to around $4,345 during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the potential upside for the precious metal might be limited amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged. Reuters reported on Sunday that the Israeli military said that it intercepted waves of missiles fired from Iran for the first time since early April. Iranian officials said that any attack from Israel against Lebanon or Iran would be met with a “crushing and comprehensive response.”US President Donald Trump said that he would call Israeli…
The dollar was higher on Friday and set for a more than 1% weekly gain after the U.S. economy posted another month of strong employment gains in May. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 85,000 jobs after a previously reported 115,000 rise in April. The number sent the dollar up sharply against the yen, which has been testing the 160-per-dollar barrier this week, drawing sharp warnings from Japanese officials as Middle East tensions…
The rupee outshone its Asia Pacific peers to rally 84 paise on Friday, recording its biggest daily advance in more than two months after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Centre unveiled a raft of measures to draw in foreign inflows and underpin the currency. It raced past 95 to a dollar to close at 94.95, versus 95.79 a day earlier, as currency bears were whipped in unidirectional trade on expectations that the steps could well attract funds equivalent to about 7% of the current forex stockpile.Market participants broadly expect inflows of $20-50 billion via the NRI deposit…
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting note that Philippine inflation unexpectedly eased in May but remains above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target, keeping risks tilted to the upside. They expect the BSP to deliver a 25bps hike to 4.75% on 18 June and another 25bps to 5.00% in 3Q26, then hold rates to anchor expectations and support the Philippine Peso (PHP).BSP seen hiking to 5.00 percent”Notwithstanding the slower-than-expected headline inflation outturn, risks to the near-term inflation outlook remain skewed to the upside.””Thus, we retain our full-year 2026 inflation forecast at 7.5% for now (BSP est: 6.3%;…