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ING economists Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang expect China’s February CPI inflation to pick up to 1.0% year-on-year, mainly due to Lunar New Year effects, while the impact of higher Oil prices should appear later. They also project solid growth in exports and imports over the first two months, resulting in a larger trade surplus.Lunar New Year to lift CPI”China will release its CPI inflation data for February next Monday. We are expecting CPI to rise to 1.0% year-on-year thanks to a boost from the Lunar New Year effect. The impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East…

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/CNH has traded higher as Iran-related geopolitical tensions support the Dollar. Beijing has been setting a stronger CNY fix, which has helped stabilise the Renminbi and partially offset broader Asian FX softness. However, persistent USD strength and weaker risk sentiment could force even stronger fixes to counter near-term depreciation pressures, with upside levels highlighted.Geopolitics and fixing strategy guide pair”USD/CNH traded higher overnight as geopolitical conflict in Iran showed little signs of de-escalation. The fixing pattern this week saw a slight pick-up in setting a stronger RMB fix, with 30d rolling…

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, through Associate Economist Jester Koh, judges that Singapore’s GDP exposure to the Middle East conflict is modest under a short-lived shock scenario. Exports to key regional economies are about 2% of total exports, and UOB keeps its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.6%, while flagging potential secondary demand effects via weaker global consumption and investment.Growth impact seen as contained for now”We assess the direct impact on Singapore’s GDP growth from the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict to be limited at this juncture, assuming the conflict stays heightened only for a short period…

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes a sharp divergence between CNY forwards and spot, suggesting hedge unwinding alongside asset outflows. CNY has outperformed peers, yet the bank questions its safe haven role as spot flows show large outflows tied to expatriation. PBoC officials reiterate they will not use depreciation for competitiveness and aim to keep the renminbi broadly stable.Forward strength versus spot outflows”CNY has strongly outperformed its peers, but we also struggle to see a strong case for how the currency can serve as a safe haven.””The past two days have seen very large outflows, and this…

The USD/CHF pair retreats on Friday during the North American session, down 0.53% as the Greenback weakens following a dismal jobs report, and a break to four day low beneath the 0.7800 figure. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7771, yet it remains to end the week with gains of more than 1%.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe technical picture shows USD/CHF remaining downward biased as the pair failed to clear 0.7800, opening the door for further downside. Momentum has begun to shift slightly negatively, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), about to clear its neutral…

Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland, said that inflation is too high, adding that inflationary pressures are broad-based at the United States (US) Monetary Policy Forum in New York City on Friday.Key quotes:Inflation is ‘too high,’ pressures are broad based.Fed rate policy likely on hold for quite some time.Fed policy is in good position to navigate inflation, job challenges.Remains committed to meeting Fed’s job, inflation mandates.Inflation problem is broader than just tariffs.It would take a lot to dethrone dollar’s global role.Not hearing from contacts notable move away from dollar.Stablecoins could bolster demand for dollar.Euro still…

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that USD/MYR is consolidating near recent highs after an early-week run-up, supported by broader USD strength and soggy risk sentiment. Geopolitical headlines around Iran and energy markets are seen as key drivers. They warn that further escalation could trigger risk-off flows, weakening high-beta Asian FX including MYR, with clear resistance and support levels outlined.High-beta MYR vulnerable to risk-off flows”USD/MYR. Consolidation near recent highs. USD/MYR consolidated this week after the run-up in early week. Combination of USD strength, soggy risk sentiments weighed on Asian FX, including MYR.””For now, geopolitical headlines dominate and…

The Middle East crisis has escalated into an all-out war after the US and Israel assassinated the Supreme Leader of Iran on February 28. Iran not only targeted Israel but also attacked United States (US) military bases around the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by Iranian forces, cutting off Asia’s primary source of oil. As demand for safety skyrocketed, the biggest beneficiary was not who you are guessing; it was the Greenback, which took investors’ focus away from the bright metal as the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around the 99.70 price region during the week,…

Silver (XAG/USD) trades modestly higher on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields ease following softer-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Despite the intraday bounce, the white metal remains on track for its first weekly decline in three weeks.At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $84.27, up nearly 2.73% on the day after rebounding from a daily low near $80.17.Meanwhile, the escalating US-Iran conflict continues to offer some underlying support to safe-haven assets, helping limit deeper losses in Silver.However, rising Oil prices driven by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are fueling global inflation concerns.…

Rupee closed the week ended March 6 (Friday), 2027, at 91.74 per US dollar. The rupee saw a see-saw movement during the week amid the West Asia conflict, spike in crude oil prices and FPI-related outflows from the domestic equity markets, plunging to a record closing low of 92.15 per US dollar on March 4 and making a smart recovery to 91.60 the next day on heavy RBI intervention.The Indian currency closed the week ended March 6, , at 91.74 per US dollar, down 77 paise as compared with the previous Friday’s close of 90.97. It touched an all-time intraday…