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The RBI has intervened in every trading session since Friday, stepping up the defence of the currency, which traders are reading as a sign of lower tolerance for rupee weakness. | Photo Credit: Avijit Sadhu The Indian rupee strengthened on Tuesday to close at its strongest level in two weeks as a sharp retreat in oil prices and likely central bank intervention helped the currency cement its bounceback from near record low levels.Brent crude oil prices fell 3% to $85.6 per barrel, their lowest in over a week, which helped lift the rupee to 95.8525 per dollar, up 0.1% from…
ING’s Chris Turner highlights a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may keep its policy rate at 0.00% until end-2027, aligning with ING’s own forecast. He argues this entrenches Swiss Franc (CHF) underperformance in rising global rate environments and supports using USD/CHF to express hawkish Fed views, with potential for the pair to reach 0.85 in August if the Fed hikes.Franc seen as prime funding currency”Yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg ran a source story that insiders at the Swiss National Bank felt the SNB would keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.00% until the end of 2027. Forward guidance,…
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling after the previous day’s failure to find acceptance above $4,100, weakening below the $4,050 level during the Asian session on Tuesday. The downside potential, however, seems limited as the US Dollar (USD) bulls pause ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting. Investors will look for cues about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future policy path, which will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.Heading into the key central bank event risk, traders pared Fed rate-hike bets amid renewed hopes for…
The U.S. dollar held at a one-month high on Tuesday as traders weighed a slim but lingering chance of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, even as falling oil prices eased some concerns over inflation. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, edged up 0.03% to 101.55, with the euro down 0.01% at $1.1366. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar gained 0.05% to 163.82, while sterling eased 0.02% to $1.3284. Although a pause in U.S. attacks on Iran pushed oil prices lower and somewhat eased inflation…
WTI Crude Oil trades just above $81.00 on Monday, down close to 9% from Friday’s close near $89.00, having gapped more than $5.00 lower at the open and spent the session extending rather than repairing it. Brent broke beneath the $90.00 handle for its steepest single session since the April ceasefire. What the market has bought is the fourth de-escalation of this war since the spring, and this one has no signature on it at all.A ceasefire with one participantWashington suspended its strike campaign over the weekend after 13 consecutive nights, and by Monday a third day had passed without…
The Pound Sterling retreats by 0.13% even though the Greenback is flat during the day, as risk appetite shifted sour on news that a Chinese state-backed company is producing chipmaking machines, prompting a sell-off in ASML, the Dutch-based company. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3305, after reaching a high of 1.3363.GBP/USD slips as chipmaking worries, Fed-BoE caution, UK political uncertainty weighedThe de-escalation of the Middle East conflict is a relief for major central banks, as Oil prices slide as the US paused attacks on Iran over the weekend. The US President Donald Trump warned of further military action if negotiations between…
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports the Russian central bank cut its key rate to 14.0% despite raising its 2026 inflation forecast and projecting stagflationary macro conditions. He argues the easing cycle suggests political pressure and would normally hurt FX valuation, but stresses USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are artificial rates, so the move should not significantly affect the Ruble’s market value.Rate cuts under stagflationary outlook”The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its key rate by 25bp on Friday to 14.0% even after raising its inflation forecast. The outcome was not expected by the majority, but was always a scenario within the range of expectations.…
The Indian rupee registered its best trading session in more than six weeks on Monday, as likely intervention from the central bank added to the impact of a plunge in oil prices and triggered stop-losses for long dollar positions.The rupee opened at 96.1475 against the U.S. dollar and climbed to an intraday high of 95.7950, having settled at 96.5625 in the previous session.It ended 0.7% higher on Monday, biggest single session gain since June 12.The currency, already buoyed by falling oil prices, saw its rally pick up pace after the dollar/rupee pair slipped below the 96.14-96.16 range and plunged to…
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD has rebounded above 1.140 on lower Oil prices but argues the move looks optimistic without a clear de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Pesole stresses that elevated European gas prices are hurting the Euro’s terms of trade, while upcoming Eurozone data are unlikely to deliver enough domestic support to offset Dollar-safe-haven and Fed-related pressures.Gas prices and geopolitics weigh on euro”EUR/USD has bounced back above 1.140 as oil prices dropped sharply today. Still, that move looks somewhat optimistic given the absence of a clear de-escalation path. Any renewed military strikes could quickly send Brent back to $100/bbl…
The rupee gained 28 paise to 96.25 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, taking cues from a sharp fall in crude oil prices and positive global sentiment after the US and Iran signalled an easing of tensions in West Asia.The American currency index also retreated from an elevated level, while domestic equities witnessed a strong buying trend, supporting the local currency further, forex traders said.At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 96.18 but lost some ground to trade at 96.28 against the greenback, logging a gain of 28 paise from its previous closing level.On Friday,…