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Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell added further comments during his testimony before the congressional budget committee on Tuesday, building out his case for holding off on rate cuts, likely until sometime in the fourth quarter.Key highlightsWhen the time is right, expect rate cuts to continue.Data suggests at least some of tariff will hit consumer.I think we’ll start to see more tariff inflation starting in June.We will be learning as we go through the summer.I’m perfectly open to the idea that tariff-inflation pass through will be less than we think.We don’t need to be in any rush.If it turns out…

The Indian Rupee gains for a second day, supported by softer crude Oil prices and a weaker US Dollar.US President Donald Trump announces a “complete and total” ceasefire between Iran and Israel, calming global energy markets.S&P Global Ratings raises India’s FY2025 growth forecast to 6.5% and sees moderate inflation ahead.The USD/INR pair falls on Tuesday for a third consecutive day, as a pullback in global Crude Oil prices and a weaker Greenback improved the outlook for India’s trade balance. Sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced on social media that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, easing…

The rupee closed 78 paisa stronger from its previous close at 85.97 per dollar – its biggest single-day rise in a month, as oil prices fell to $69 per barrel. The rupee had closed at 86.75/$1 on Monday. The renewed sentiment comes after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran went into effect, reviving demand for risk assets in the emerging markets.Oil prices fell at $69 per barrel, down more than 15% from a five-month high of $80 per barrel hit just a day earlier, according to Reuters.The rupee traded in the range of 86.27/$1 and 85.91/$1, LSEG data showed. “Anchor…

Intraday, the Indian unit tested a high/low of 85.9125/86.2625 per dollar. | Photo Credit: REUTERS The rupee posted its biggest single-day gain in a month on Tuesday, closing up 77 paise against the US dollar, amid a steep fall in global crude oil prices, after US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that ceasefire between Israel and Iran is in effect.Government Securities (G-Secs) too rallied with the yield of the benchmark 10-year paper closing 6 basis points lower at 6.25 per cent (previous close: 6.31 per cent) even as its price rose by about 40 paise.The rupee,…

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell testifies about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee.Powell testimony key takeaways”US not in recession.””Many paths are possible.””Could see inflation come in not as strong as expected.””If that’s the case that would suggest cutting sooner.””Also, weakening labor market would suggest cutting sooner.””If inflation, labor market remain strong, could cut later.””We don’t bless individual forecasts as a Committee.””Fed projections are for inflation to move up because of tariffs.””What will happen with rates will depend on economy.””Significant majority of policymakers feels will be appropriate to reduce rates later this year.””Projections are subject…

The AUD/USD outlook is bullish as the pair quickly recovered after a ceasefire. The US dollar and crude oil lost all the gains accumulated after Middle East escalation. Market participants expect Fed’s easing to begin as soon as July. The AUD/USD price rebounded sharply, staging recovery from the losses posted on Monday due to escalated tension in the Middle East. The announcement of a ceasefire weighed on the US dollar that picked strength after America’s attack on Iran’s three nuclear sites. The AUD/USD pair quickly reversed the course as the fear of escalation subsided. –Are you interested in learning more…

The rupee recovered from record low level and closed with a steep gain of 75 paise at 86.03 (provisional) against the US dollar as global crude oil prices went down following hopes of deescalation in Middle East tensions. A weak greenback and positive sentiments in the domestic equity markets further boosted the local unit, according to forex traders. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, plummeted 3.19 per cent to $69.20 per barrel in futures trade as US President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 86.07…

The National Bank of Hungary is likely to leave rates unchanged today at 6.50% in line with market expectations, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes. Weakness in HUF is likely to fade”The central bank is expected to confirm the hawkish message from the last meetings and perhaps increase the amount of hawkishness, given some upside inflation surprises and the current developments in the Middle East, which clearly threaten FX and price stability in Hungary. The new forecast will also be in the spotlight, where we are likely to see a worse outlook for the economy this year and next.””The market…

A relief rally is boosting the Euro and crushing the safe-haven US Dollar.A sharp decline in Oil prices is giving additional support to the common currency.EUR/USD has broken the top of a bullish flag formation and aims for 1.1630 and 1.1700.The EUR/USD pair is rallying on Tuesday, following a significant rebound on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran. The common currency has jumped about 1.30% from Monday’s lows to reach levels right above 1.1600 at the time of writing, at a short distance from the year-to-date high of 1.1630.Israel and…

| Photo Credit: Atstock Productions The ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a “significant pressure” on the rupee or inflation as global energy prices are lower than last year, which will limit current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday. S&P Global Ratings Economist Vishrut Rana said a key mitigating factor of India is that energy prices are still lower than last year — Brent crude oil traded at roughly $85/barrel a year ago and current prices are still lower. “This will help contain both current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures…