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Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports the Russian central bank cut its key rate to 14.0% despite raising its 2026 inflation forecast and projecting stagflationary macro conditions. He argues the easing cycle suggests political pressure and would normally hurt FX valuation, but stresses USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are artificial rates, so the move should not significantly affect the Ruble’s market value.Rate cuts under stagflationary outlook”The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its key rate by 25bp on Friday to 14.0% even after raising its inflation forecast. The outcome was not expected by the majority, but was always a scenario within the range of expectations.…
The Indian rupee registered its best trading session in more than six weeks on Monday, as likely intervention from the central bank added to the impact of a plunge in oil prices and triggered stop-losses for long dollar positions.The rupee opened at 96.1475 against the U.S. dollar and climbed to an intraday high of 95.7950, having settled at 96.5625 in the previous session.It ended 0.7% higher on Monday, biggest single session gain since June 12.The currency, already buoyed by falling oil prices, saw its rally pick up pace after the dollar/rupee pair slipped below the 96.14-96.16 range and plunged to…
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD has rebounded above 1.140 on lower Oil prices but argues the move looks optimistic without a clear de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Pesole stresses that elevated European gas prices are hurting the Euro’s terms of trade, while upcoming Eurozone data are unlikely to deliver enough domestic support to offset Dollar-safe-haven and Fed-related pressures.Gas prices and geopolitics weigh on euro”EUR/USD has bounced back above 1.140 as oil prices dropped sharply today. Still, that move looks somewhat optimistic given the absence of a clear de-escalation path. Any renewed military strikes could quickly send Brent back to $100/bbl…
The rupee gained 28 paise to 96.25 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, taking cues from a sharp fall in crude oil prices and positive global sentiment after the US and Iran signalled an easing of tensions in West Asia.The American currency index also retreated from an elevated level, while domestic equities witnessed a strong buying trend, supporting the local currency further, forex traders said.At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 96.18 but lost some ground to trade at 96.28 against the greenback, logging a gain of 28 paise from its previous closing level.On Friday,…
USD/IDR has recovered its losses from the previous trading day, hovering around 18,050 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure following the surprise resignation of Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo, a move expected to rattle investors and reignite concerns over central bank independence. Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti has been appointed interim governor, clarifying that Warjiyo stepped down for personal reasons.The upside of the USD/IDR pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) falls sharply, as geopolitical tensions eased following a weekend pause in military hostilities between the US…
Mumbai: The rupee is headed into a crucial week, trading close to its record low and within sight of the psychologically important 97-per-dollar level, as elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks threaten to put fresh pressure on the currency.Rupee closed at 96.56 on Friday, close to its all-time low of 96.96 hit in late May. Traders said the RBI has been defending the 96.55-96.60 zone aggressively, but a further rise in oil prices or any fresh negative geopolitical development could test how far, and at what level, it is prepared to intervene.Traders are also tracking debt inflows and the pace…
The dollar was set for its biggest weekly gain since mid-June, buoyed by the rise in oil prices, while the yen was poised for its largest weekly percentage decline in more than two months as the currency languishes at 40-year lows despite Japan’s pledges to buttress the currency. Verbal efforts to support the yen have seen muted results, with Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama once again reiterating on Friday the government’s readiness to take action in the foreign exchange market. Some analysts see another intervention by Japanese officials as likely to have only a short-lived effect, similar to recent interventions…
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to leave the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) policy unchanged at Monday’s meeting despite a modest rebound in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 1.6% year-on-year in June. They argue the move does not yet signal a broad or persistent inflation impulse, and say a balanced hold should limit SGD reaction, though emphasis on imported inflation could keep S$NEER firm.Policy pause but watch statement tone”Our base case for upcoming MAS MPS looks for a hold at Monday’s meeting.””The modest rebound warrants some caution,…
The EUR/JPY consolidates around 186.00, edges down by 0.06% amid a souring of risk appetite amid the escalation of the US-Iran war, and strengthens safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen.EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe EUR/JPY trades sideways after reaching the year-to-date (YTD) high of 187.95. The cross-pair dipped toward the 183.00 area following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) last intervention, and since then buyers have reclaimed key resistance levels to reach the 186.00 mark.At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY remains capped within the 186.00-187.00 range, amid fears that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange markets. But bulls…
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng argues that Malaysia’s financial markets reflect confidence in the country’s solid domestic fundamentals despite lingering Middle East geopolitical risks. The Malaysian Ringgit has outperformed regional peers, government bond yields remain stable, and resilient growth data have led DBS to upgrade its 2026 real GDP forecast to 5.2% from 4.7% previously.Ringgit strength and resilient GDP outlook”Malaysia’s financial markets are signalling investor confidence in the economy’s solid domestic fundamentals, even as geopolitical risks in the Middle East linger.””The Malaysian ringgit has outperformed its regional peers so far this year, reflecting resilient bond portfolio inflows, although…