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MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that Bank Indonesia kept its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and still expects inflation to stay within its 1.5%–3.5% target. However, upside inflation risks could weigh on the Rupiah if policymakers let the economy run hotter. Higher bond yields and overvalued 10‑year bonds add to policy trade-offs for BI as it considers gradual easing.Growth targets held as inflation risks tilt up”BI maintains its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and continues to expect inflation to remain within its 1.5%–3.5% target range this year. However, inflation risks are skewed to the upside if policymakers allow…
The US Dollar (USD) held firm on Friday after the release of top-tier data, but the US Dollar Index (DXY) posted an acceptable weekly gain of almost 1%. The December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 3% YoY, above market forecasts, signalling an uptick in inflation pressures and supporting the USD. Additionally, the US flash Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to 1.4% from the 3% expected, impacting investors’ attraction to the Greenback.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.80 level, struggling to attract buyers after weaker-than-expected GDP. On Monday, the US will release the December Factory…
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Thailand’s economy remains a low‑growth, low‑inflation outlier, even as authorities project modest improvement in 2026 and 2027. Despite some upside risks to near‑term growth, UOB expects 2026 to mark the cyclical trough and continues to forecast a final 25 bps policy rate cut at the upcoming BOT meeting.Low growth and inflation justify further easing”Looking ahead, the authorities project 2026 growth at 1.5–2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) with headline inflation at -0.3 to 0.7%.””While noting the upside risks to the near-term growth outlook, we maintain our medium-term view that 2026 marks the cyclical trough (1.8%),…
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Friday he is deeply disappointed of certain members of the Supreme Court after it ruled that his sweeping tariffs are illegal. In a press conference in Washington DC, Trump has vowed to impose a 10% “global tariff” using an alternative law.Key takeawaysIt is deeply disappointing. Ashamed of certain members of the court. Foreign countries are so happy. Countries won’t be dancing for long. Court has been swayed by foreign interests. There are methods that are even stronger available to me. Other alternatives will be used on tariffs. Could be we take in…
USD/JPY is trading around 154.90 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.13% on the day. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains modest support after inflation data showed a clear moderation in price pressures at the start of the year, while the US Dollar (USD) tumbles after the Supreme Court rules Trump’s national security tariffs unlawful.In Japan, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% YoY in January, down from 2.1% in December, marking the slowest pace since March 2022. The index excluding fresh food eased to 2%, from 2.4% previously, in line with expectations. The so-called core-core measure, which…
The Reserve Bank of India sold a net of $10.02 billion in the foreign exchange market in December, data released on Friday showed, reflecting the central bank’s efforts to support the currency that was the worst emerging market performer last year.The RBI said in its monthly bulletin that it purchased $18.33 billion and sold $28.35 billion in December. In November, the central bank had sold a net of $9.7 billion in the market.The Indian rupee fell to its then-record low of 91.0750 on December 16, pressured by worries over a trade stalemate with the U.S. and persistent foreign outflows.The currency…
DBS’s Chang Wei Liang note USD/JPY has moved above 155 on broad Dollar strength, even as geopolitical risks could support the Japanese Yen as a safe haven. Japan’s FY26 budget debate and Prime Minister Takaichi’s proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food are seen as key for JPY direction. The IMF’s guidance on tax policy and BOJ rate hikes may delay sustained JPY strength.Fiscal debate and BOJ path guide Yen”US-Iran tensions have re-escalated, with Trump warning of a strike on Iran in the next 10 days without a deal, and Iran threatening that all bases and assets of hostile…
Rupee slipped on Friday to post its steepest weekly fall in a month as likely portfolio outflows and lingering geopolitical tensions weighed on the currency, pushing it close to the 91-per-dollar mark.The rupee closed at 90.9825 per dollar, down 0.3% on the day and 0.4% for the week.Central bank intervention, including on Friday, helped keep the currency above 91 despite broad-based dollar demand from importers and paring of bullish positions, traders said.There was a meaningful supply of dollars from the central bank in the market today, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said, adding he expected the rupee to trade…
The Indian Rupee (INR) gaps down at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after a holiday on Thursday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 91.20 in the opening trade as the Indian Rupee weakens on rising Oil price and the absence of strong buying interest by foreign investors in the Indian stock market.Oil prices have risen significantly following threats of United States (US) military action against Iran. According to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), President Donald Trump is weighing a limited military strike on Iran to pressure Tehran to agree to a nuclear deal.Currencies from…
The rupee depreciated 27 paise to 90.95 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, weighed down by a strong American currency and higher crude oil prices due to the escalated geopolitical tension. A selling rush in domestic equities further pressured the Indian currency, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 90.94 and slipped further to trade at 90.95 against the greenback in early deals, losing 27 paise from its previous closing level.The rupee rose 4 paise to settle at 90.68 against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency exchange markets were closed on…