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The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Monday, as fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East rattled regional currencies, and surging oil prices heightened concerns over global growth and inflation.The rupee fell to an all-time low of 92.3475, with likely dollar-selling intervention by the Reserve Bank of India averting steeper losses. It closed down 0.6% at 92.3275.Crude oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel, to levels not seen since mid-2022, heaping pressure on oil-importing Asian economies. The Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine peso also hit record lows.Global equities and bonds also came under pressure, with MSCI’s…
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and colleagues expect a firmer US headline CPI than core in February, driven by higher energy prices, with year-on-year headline inflation near 2.4% and core edging slightly lower. Core PCE is forecast to accelerate to 0.42% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, making this week’s CPI and PCE releases crucial ahead of the March FOMC meeting.CPI and PCE seen slightly firmer”It’s a unique double dose of key US inflation reports with CPI (Wednesday) and core PCE (Friday) reporting in the same week for the only time as far as I went back to check.””For this week’s US inflation…
EUR/USD edges higher after registering little gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests an ongoing bearish bias as the pair remains within the descending channel pattern.The near-term bias is bearish as the pair extends its decline below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has turned lower and now tracks well above spot, reinforcing short-term downside pressure. Price also holds beneath the 50-day EMA, keeping the broader trend tilted to the downside despite earlier consolidation.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has slipped below…
The Indian rupee may slip to a record low at open on Monday, as a sharp surge in global oil prices fuelled by the widening Middle East conflictdeepened concerns over India’s external balances, while traders were on alert for potential central bank intervention. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 92.30-92.35 range versus the U.S. dollar, down from 91.74 on Friday and possibly eclipsing the previous record low of 92.3025 hit last week. Brent crude jumped more than 25% to around $117 a barrel, extending last week’s nearly 28% rally triggered by the outbreak of the…
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $5,065 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD) and inflationary risks. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran conflicts and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The US Consumer Price Index inflation report (CPI) will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as a rally in crude oil prices stokes inflation fears in the US, raising the chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates higher for longer. Higher borrowing costs are typically negative for the…
During an address broadcast by Iranian state TV, President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised to the neighbouring countries for attacks launched following US-Israel strikes but asserted that Tehran will not strike “unless they attack first”.Key quotesI must apologise on my own behalf and on behalf of Iran to the neighbouring countries that were attacked by Iran.The interim leadership council agreed yesterday that no more attacks will be made on neighbouring countries and no missiles will be fired unless an attack on Iran originates from those countries.Tehran would “not surrender” to US President Donald Trump’s demands of “unconditional surrender”.The comments come after Iran launched attacks…
ING economists Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang expect China’s February CPI inflation to pick up to 1.0% year-on-year, mainly due to Lunar New Year effects, while the impact of higher Oil prices should appear later. They also project solid growth in exports and imports over the first two months, resulting in a larger trade surplus.Lunar New Year to lift CPI”China will release its CPI inflation data for February next Monday. We are expecting CPI to rise to 1.0% year-on-year thanks to a boost from the Lunar New Year effect. The impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East…
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/CNH has traded higher as Iran-related geopolitical tensions support the Dollar. Beijing has been setting a stronger CNY fix, which has helped stabilise the Renminbi and partially offset broader Asian FX softness. However, persistent USD strength and weaker risk sentiment could force even stronger fixes to counter near-term depreciation pressures, with upside levels highlighted.Geopolitics and fixing strategy guide pair”USD/CNH traded higher overnight as geopolitical conflict in Iran showed little signs of de-escalation. The fixing pattern this week saw a slight pick-up in setting a stronger RMB fix, with 30d rolling…
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, through Associate Economist Jester Koh, judges that Singapore’s GDP exposure to the Middle East conflict is modest under a short-lived shock scenario. Exports to key regional economies are about 2% of total exports, and UOB keeps its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.6%, while flagging potential secondary demand effects via weaker global consumption and investment.Growth impact seen as contained for now”We assess the direct impact on Singapore’s GDP growth from the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict to be limited at this juncture, assuming the conflict stays heightened only for a short period…
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes a sharp divergence between CNY forwards and spot, suggesting hedge unwinding alongside asset outflows. CNY has outperformed peers, yet the bank questions its safe haven role as spot flows show large outflows tied to expatriation. PBoC officials reiterate they will not use depreciation for competitiveness and aim to keep the renminbi broadly stable.Forward strength versus spot outflows”CNY has strongly outperformed its peers, but we also struggle to see a strong case for how the currency can serve as a safe haven.””The past two days have seen very large outflows, and this…