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The AUD/JPY cross remains on the back foot for the second consecutive day and trades just above mid-112.00s during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, lack bearish conviction, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of this week’s modest pullback from the vicinity of the 114.00 mark, or the highest level since 1990.The Japanese Yen (JPY) reached levels that prompted the so-called rate checks in January, fueling speculations that authorities would step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency. This turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/JPY cross.…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $95.75 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price surges due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid conflict involving the United States (US), Israel, and Iran.US crude oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the war. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the US-Israeli war on Iran was “creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his first public statement since being appointed that the closure of the…
HSBC stresses stable income as crucial in the current environment and maintains bonds as a core portfolio component. With inflation largely contained and rate-cut cycles nearing completion, the bank prefers UK gilts, Australian government bonds and selected emerging market debt, favouring investment grade over high yield and medium-to-long duration in EUR and GBP, while keeping medium duration in USD.Income strategies across sovereign and credit”Stable income is critical in an evolving financial and geopolitical landscape, both as a source of returns and a means to reduce portfolio volatility, supporting bonds as a key portfolio component in both good and bad times.””We’re…
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights the Australian Dollar as a key G10 outperformer, supported by strong RBA hike expectations and high Oil prices. Markets now assign a 70% probability to a 25bp hike next week, with AUD/USD seen targeting 0.7200 if equities hold up. However, aggressive positioning raises the risk of a post‑decision correction.RBA pricing lifts Aussie but risks build”The Aussie dollar remains the big winner in G10.””Equity instability remains a major correction risk for AUD, but we must also note that markets are turning rather aggressive in pricing another RBA hike on 17 March.””The implied probability of a 25bp increase…
The Indian rupee hit a record low on Thursday as the latest attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East pushed up crude prices, likely prompting central bank intervention to limit the currency’s fall. The rupee fell to an all-time low of 92.3575 per dollar earlier in the day, but pared some losses as energy prices retreated modestly. The currency ended at 92.19, down 0.16% from the previous session. Brent futures rose to a peak of $101.6 per barrel and were last quoted at $96.87. The conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has spread across the Middle…
The rupee recovered from record low levels and settled with a loss of 16 paise at 92.17 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday as global crude oil prices stayed on an upward trajectory amid the raging war in West Asia.A stronger greenback and volatility in the domestic equity markets further weighed on the rupee, which was already on a weak footing in early trade due to heavy foreign fund outflows, forex traders said.At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 92.25 but kept slipping to touch its record intra-day low against the greenback at 92.36. However, it…
ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski argues that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged at its 19 March meeting but adopt a more hawkish tone as the war in the Middle East and higher Oil prices revive memories of the 2022 energy shock. The ECB is seen shelving any rate cut discussion and focusing on inflation risks and expectations.War and Oil reshape ECB reaction function”By the time the ECB meets on 19 March, the macro backdrop will have shifted markedly since the last meeting. With the conflict in the Middle East, the risk of inflation undershooting –…
Opening at 92.25 per USD against previous close of 92.04, the rupee so far has tested an intraday high/low of 92.25/92.3650. | Photo Credit: VIVEK PRAKASH The rupee opened 21 paise weaker on Thursday amid heavy FPI selling pressure in the equity markets and the surge of crude oil price to over $100 a barrel in the wake of intensifying West Asia conflict.Opening at 92.25 per USD against previous close of 92.04, the rupee so far has tested an intraday high/low of 92.25/92.3650. Currently, it is trading at 92.3050 per USD, according to CCIL.According to DSP Netra report, every $10…
EUR/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.1540 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains stronger, as surging energy prices heightened inflationary risks and reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.The February US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday showed inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), largely in line with market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY.The relatively steady inflation figures reduced fears of a sudden surge in price pressures and reinforced expectations…
US intelligence showed that Iran’s leadership is still mostly intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after over two weeks of nonstop US and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported on Wednesday.Due to mounting political pressure over soaring oil prices, US President Donald Trump signaled that the largest U.S. military mission since 2003 may finish “soon.” However, if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched, it may be challenging to find a peaceful conclusion to the conflict.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 5.50% on the day at $91.78. WTI Oil FAQs WTI…